https://twitter.com/zaferpartisi/status/1662688988526784512?t=SUkk6mlIxp_YgCWJZNIF0A&s=19

When I was 20 years old I was invited by Jesse Daniel King / vincenzo king to live with him at Mt.tam Ridge apartments (now called Bell apartments) in Corte Madera, Marin. The way we met is he would constantly DM me on instagram until I gave in. He told me was Sicilian but had a lot of medication in different language. He would inject himself with what he said were “hormones”. As I was in a vulnerable state,I complied, it was a new experience for me, I had never lived with a man that was my so-called “boyfriend”. At first jesse was kind, I helped him pay the apartment and gave him my full trust. I gave him roughly around 8k-10k. He told me his mother died and that he had cancer, as well that he was a private contractor for the army and that he had killed people. He showed signs of deep trauma in which I could relate to, I felt bad for him and wanted to offer a loving-kindness as I believe everyone can heal. I lived with him for two years. After the first two months that I lived with him he started to become aggressive, getting mad for every little thing (for example: I once clogged the kitchen sink because I was doing dishes) or he would get angry at his boss “Tom” from Sausalito California an old man that he took care of but heavily complained about. I was very understanding of his emotions and the most patient I had ever been with anyone as I wanted to offer my full empathy. I did love him at one point but that was before I learned the truth and how I was backstabbed. Fast forward a couple months and I got pregnant. It was my first time getting pregnant, he immediately started to become even more aggressive and told me he didn’t want me to have the baby. I became heavily depressed and even dependent on him as I was scared to tell my parents and felt I couldn’t tell them what was going on. I was trapped in that one bedroom apartment, he would go out but I would always be stuck there for the sake of being loyal. He would always express to me how loyalty was important to him and I respected that. While I was pregnant he would flirt and go out to meet other women. He told me about his ex girlfriend “Katherine” of 7 years and how her mom and dad are powerful in the Air Force. I texted her once to ask her if Jesse was good to her, in which she replied “in hindsight”. I had no problem with her and left it at that. Jesse and Katherine kept in contact afterwards, I didn’t complain as I was scared he would get mad at me and call me toxic. During that same time he expressed interest in a neighbor called “Alison”. He said not to worry about her as her husband was CHP, but he also said that he bet she “fucked like an animal”. Very concerning to hear but I ignored it so he wouldn’t have a fit. I was constantly walking on eggshells. After that, that is when Alison lindemann (lindermann, might not be her real name) knocked on our door. Jesse explained what happened from his point of view in the email screenshot attachments above. Alison was very aggressive towards me, after the altercation Jesse choke slammed me and strangled me for a minute before he “realized” what he was doing. I suffered a mild concussion. He then gave me a pill and that is when I lost my baby. I had no health care so I had to heal the natural way. I knew I lost my child because I had never experienced that pain before, he locked himself in the bathroom while I screamed in pain in the bedroom, not once did he ask if I was okay. I tolerated his behavior because I was scared and he blamed his anger on Cancer and his dead parents. After the lease ended he said he had no where to go so I invited him to live with my parents, my mom helped us move our things, he never said thank you. He had an anger fit towards my mom, and he was still being aggressive in my parents home. That is when I kicked him out, I didn’t want my siblings to witness his anger and get traumatized like I did. We then went our separate ways. Afterwards I found out that he never had cancer and both his parents were still alive. I knew because his parents would visit my job at chevron in Rockville road and intimidate me because Fairfield is their town/turf. I then found out that his “sister” was Stevie king and her husband Alex , people I worked with at in n out in Fairfield when I was 18. I found this creepy and sad as I didn’t expect it from them. I also found out that he had a child with Shelby Larkin, and named her Kennedy at the same time I lost my baby. After I spoke up, my family and I dealt with retaliation. I have multiple evidence, from stalking, harassment from his friends and subliminals from his best friend kiana Melendez. I suffered a deep depression. I was scared to tell my parents so I posted it online instead. Hoping they wouldn’t suffer from retaliation but they still did. All of the attackers were from Travis Air Force, in Fairfield California (Katherine’s mom and dad people) He had access to all money that he “kept” for me. As well as my social security. Im first generation and he used my information to attack members of my family that were undocumented. An auntie in my family in Mexico was robbed significantly. I also suffered a financial loss. Since they won’t stop I am forced to publicly my case again. I wish I wasn’t so stupid and never met him. The first king that bullied me was Caroline king, she followed me to a thrift shop and laughed at me with her friend group. Not one was a person of color. I didn’t know they were related until now. I was targeted. I hope my case helps others not be as naive as I was. Katherine and her mom followed me to Mexico to spy on me and Mexico City. Im pretty sure that’s illegal but I don’t know, they do a lot of “tours”. It’s sad to see the US government abuse their power on the innocent. I was robbed, a family member of mine was killed, I lost my baby by force,i suffered postpartum depression, I was then gangstalked by Katherine and Jesses friends, My parents were intimidated by the Travis Air Force to keep me quiet. I felt trapped in that town as their beloved Air Force are “heroes”. What did I do that started their interest in me ? I went to a peaceful protest advocating against police brutality and for women’s rights. I missed family events and he wouldn’t let me go to Mexico City, I didn’t deserve this. My family and I also experienced a in house C4 bomb “test” the day before my birthday. On my birthday I spent it in the 707 North Bay hospital, in which the Spaniard nurses there all seemed to have the same face as Katherine. They told me I was paranoid and agitated,they did an EKG on me but didn’t tell me why or what the procedure was. They also injected me with a shot when I told them not to, I am 23 and a “legal” adult now so I would assume the doctors would have to respect my choice. But they didn’t, after my stay I felt like a zombie and suffered from a urinary tract infection that I didn’t have before my stay at that hospital. I don’t know how long I was knocked out but I spent a day and night there. I pleaded to go home and that I was okay and tried my best to not seem so “agitated” but they declined and kept me still. I have video surveillance evidence of the C4 bomb “test” as my parents have cameras inside the house. What was the most heartbreaking is that my little siblings also smelled the smell of C4. No kid should know what that smells like. I hope this spreads awareness on how dangerous these people are and how they abuse their power. I can forgive what happened to me but I am angry about what happened to my family. On my little sisters birthday, “Katie” another of Katherine’s people inserted herself and did a pop-up on my families property, even went as far to call me a bitch. Now Katie’s and all the kats protect their identities by calling themselves Kat now, reminds me of kkk. Which is still active is the 707 Bay Area. It seems as though the Travis Air Force uses the kkk to install fear into the lives of people of color in “their” communities, they also disguise themselves under being MAGA supporters. These are my facts, my story from my point of view. I’m sorry for speaking my truth.

Introduction
Here's another effortpost on Brazil! This time I'll be talking about why the Brazilian economy stagnated, and what we can expect from Lula in terms of economic policy (I've talked about this in the past but now I'll go into more detail).
Between 1920 and 1980, Brazil was a clear economic success story. For 60 years, our GDP grew at an average of 4% a year. This 'golden age' ended in a hyperinflation crisis, which made the 1980s become known as a 'lost decade', and since its resolution in 1994 with the Plano Real, our economy has experienced minimal growth: from 1980 to 2020, the average GDP growth rate was only 0.7%.
Evolution of the Brazilian per capita product, at 2010 prices, from 1900 to 2021. The scale of the graph is logarithmic in base 2.
In this post, I'll try to explain the reasons for Brazil's low growth in the last four decades and what Lula's plans are to address them.
The debate
Before delving into the actual causes of the "semi-stagnation", I would like to explain the economic debate in Brazil. This debate revolves around two major groups of economists: the "developmentalists" and the "liberals." The term "developmentalism" may be unfamiliar to many people here, but it is very present in Latin America. A decent explanation for it could be "dirigisme with Latam characteristics."
In short, liberalism in this context is associated with economic orthodoxy and a pro-market orientation in economic policy, while developmentalism leans towards economic heterodoxy and advocates for direct state interference in the economy. This debate is, in theory, separate from the traditional right versus left political divide, as we have had governments from both ends of the political spectrum adopting policies aligned with either school of thought. For instance, Lula I (2003-2007) represented a left-wing liberal government, while Geisel (1974-1979) presided over a right-wing developmentalist government. However, in practice, liberalism is associated with the right-wing while developmentalism is associated with the left-wing.
One area of major divergence between those two groups is full employment. Liberals argue that the Brazilian economy generally operates at full employment, which means that there are well-defined supply-side limits and restrictions in the economy, whereas developmentalists believe it tends to operate below that level. This implies that the economy's natural state is one of perpetual aggregate demand deficiency, and thus the government could just increase spending to mobilize idle production factors and stimulate economic growth.
Furthermore, liberals typically view direct state intervention in the economy with distrust, opposing increased public investments in infrastructure and most forms of industrial policy. Their preference generally leans towards reducing government spending and relying on a 'crowding in' effect, together with supply-side reforms. Conversely, developmentalists perceive state intervention as a necessity to stimulate the economy, favoring a robust industrial policy and increased public investments.
Those are significant oversimplifications, and many economists do not align themselves with either group. In any case, I would say this categorization reasonably represents the current debate.
It's a tradition in Brazil to divide ministries between liberals and developmentalists to ensure a balance between the two. The current Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, believes in a middle ground approach, with some of his secretaries (e.g., Guilherme Mello) leaning more towards developmentalism, while others (e.g., Bernard Appy) lean more towards liberalism. Planning Minister Simone Tebet and Industry and Commerce Minister Geraldo Alckmin are firmly in the liberal camp. However, due to the nature of his ministry, Geraldo Alckmin will probably concede more to developmentalist policies (as he's already doing). Aloizio Mercadante, the President of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), is considered the leader of the developmentalist branch of the government, along with Workers' Party President Gleisi Hoffmann (some people jokingly refer to her as the main opposition to Fernando Haddad and the 'Twitter Shadow Finance Minister' due to some of her tweets).
Without further ado, let's get to the causes of Brazil's stagnation.
Guido Mantega (Finance Minister between 2006 and 2014) and Antônio Palocci (Finance Minister between 2003 and 2006). Mantega is associated to developmentalism and Palocci to liberalism.
Education
First of all, the significant growth of the 20th century left a terrible educational legacy. Brazil only began to have a somewhat consistent educational policy in the 1990s and 2000s, when basic education was universalized. To put it into perspective, in 1990, the average number of years of schooling in Brazil was 3.8 years. Even Sub-Saharan African countries like Congo, Zimbabwe, and Zambia had higher average schooling levels than ours. Approximately a quarter of the population were illiterate.
The key change came with the 1988 Constitution, which decided that Brazil would try to become an European-style social democracy. Since then, considerable progress has been made, but clearly not enough. The main educational bottleneck lies in Elementary School II, which typically spans the ages of 12 to 15. It is during this stage in Brazil that the discrepancy between age and the appropriate grade level drastically increases, leading to higher rates of grade repetition and students falling behind in their education.
This problem is probably related to the transition from a single teacher trained in pedagogy in Elementary I to several specialists teaching only one subject. This transition also occurs at the onset of adolescence, which is naturally a turbulent phase already, with the introduction of drugs, alcohol and various forms of prejudice being normal. The result ends up being a distancing of the student from school.
Two Brazilian states, which have been governed by center-left parties for many years, serve as examples in Brazilian educational policy: Pernambuco and Ceará.
A highlight in Ceará is the Programa de Afabetização na Idade Certa (Program of Alphabetization in the Right Age), which aims to ensure that all students in the state's public school systems achieve literacy by the age of 7. The plan was based on the following pillars: (1) the elaboration of a specialized literacy curriculum that was adopted in all the municipalities, with structured materials for teachers and students containing a daily routine of classroom activities and homework assignments; (2) pedagogical practices to encourage reading in the classroom; (3) financial incentives for the municipalities that achieve better results in education; and (4) evaluation and monitoring of the program, with a census and diagnostic test that is applied at the beginning of every semester.
Pernambuco has implemented a Full-Time High School system that stands out. The system is based on the following pillars: (1) the introduction of a subject called "life project," which encourages students to create plans with goals and objectives for their lives; (2) guided study, providing a space for autonomy in learning and fostering self-directed learning skills; (3) hands-on, practical classes that combine theory and practice; (4) youth clubs, where collective interests of young people are pursued; (5) tutoring, where teachers (tutors) interact with students to support their development; and (6) full-time education, of course.
Both plans have been tremendous successes and could be implemented nationwide. The Member of Parliament Tabata Amaral has proposed the program "basic education like Ceará's, high school like Pernambuco's." We might see that put in practice. Izolda Cela, the mind behind Ceará's basic education plan, is the Executive-Secretary of the Ministry of Education, and the current Minister of Education is Camilo Santana, the governor of Ceará between 2014 and 2022.
Izolda Cela (Executive-Secretary of the Ministry of Education) and Camilo Santana (Minister of Education).
Public Investments
Furthermore, there is a general consensus that the significant decrease in public investment since 1980 explains part of the problem. During the Golden Age of Brazilian growth, public investment mounted to about 6% of GDP, whereas it currently stands at approximately 4% since the lost decade. Liberal economists tend to attribute this to the expansion of the welfare state, that came with a substantial increase in the tax burden (from 25% of GDP in the 1970s to 35% in 2000). On the other hand, developmentalist economists point to the decline in public savings due to the privatization of state-owned enterprises in the 1990s.
In his second government, Lula created the Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC) (Growth Acceleration Program), whose objective was precisely to expand public investments. Unfortunately, the plan ended up with highly controversial results, primarily due to the low administrative capacity of the Brazilian State and corruption (some like to call the plan the Corruption Acceleration Program!).
But now the Workers' Party has gained new experience. Many of its state governments became famous for extensive investment programs in partnership with the private sector, delivering positive results. Chief of Staff Rui Costa, in particular, had a successful experience with public-private investments during his tenure as the governor of Bahia. He is now expected to lead the "New PAC", which will probably be announced at some point between today and July. (The project still has no name and is provisionally being called "New PAC").
Here's what Rui Costa has said about the project: "We will have, in an unprecedented way, investments with Public Private Partnerships (PPIs) at the federal level. Many states, including Bahia, have made PPI projects. [...] We are negotiating with the Ministry of Finance the conditions for guarantees so that we can leverage these projects."
Lula wants to meet with the 27 state governors to determine which state projects the Union should prioritize for its investments. In recent weeks, Costa has held individual meetings with the state governments to define which projects will be included in the new PAC. In all, eight governors have already been heard.
In a speech on the May 1st holiday, Lula said the following about the project: "We are inviting foreign businessmen to invest in Brazil and we are showing them the great projects that we are going to present in the third PAC. It will be the largest infrastructure project in this country."
Former Governor of Bahia (2014 - 2022) and current Chief of Staff Rui Costa.
Deindustrialization
Another problem is the early deindustrialization that is taking place in Brazil: we are losing our industry before becoming rich. In the beginning of the lost decade, the industry accounted for one-quarter of the Brazilian GDP, whereas today it represents around one-tenth. The reason for this process is complex, and once again, economists disagree. Liberals point to the new form of production organization that emerged with globalization, where the manufacturing of goods was fragmented into different stages, each executed in different countries. According to this line of thinking, Brazil failed to adapt to the new industrial configuration and remained stuck in an unrealistic autarkic dream. On the other hand, developmentalist economists usually argue that after the end of hyperinflation, Brazil fell into a trap of having an overvalued currency and high interest rates, demolishing the industry's competitiveness. (I am more inclined towards the first thesis, although it is a fact that the Brazilian exchange rate was detrimental to the industry after the Real Plan).
Now I want to talk a little bit about the Brazilian industrial bourgeoisie and its problems. In the 1960s, the then sociologist and future president Fernando Henrique Cardoso published his thesis on the Brazilian industrial entrepreneurs. Based on his research, he concluded that Brazilian industrialists did not have any national project, and (1) "only cared about their personal interests when speaking on behalf of the class" and (2) "[their] political action consists of personal participation in the patrimonialist game." Brazil has a serious problem related to what we call 'patrimonialism,' which refers to the capture of resources from the Brazilian state to benefit private interests.
Unfortunately, industrial policy in Brazil often results in tax exemptions, subsidies, tariff protections, etc., for an inefficient, patrimonialist, and somewhat broken industry that was developed in the 20th century. The Workers' Party itself fell into this outdated corporatism while in power, especially during the first Rousseff administration (2011-2015). It is a shame that advocating for greater state involvement in the economy ends up becoming a defense of those interest groups.
In this sense, I find myself opposed to both liberals and developmentalists. While the latter end up promoting an agenda that only benefits private interests, albeit with good intentions, the former dismiss any state planning, believing in an 'economic abiogenesis.' Since 2016, we have been reducing the role of the state and waiting for a crowding in effect, but with no success. We need strong a industrial policy, but it has to be transparent and not perpetuate the old game of patrimonialism.
In the words of the brilliant economist Laura Carvalho: "We want a State that identifies ways to stimulate technological innovation and product development in partnership with the private sector. But this policy cannot become hostage to the existing private sector. We have remnants of our industry of the 20th century, for example the automobile industry, and when we do industrial policy, we end up just giving incentives to them. This is a state that does not choose winners, but rather is chosen by losers. Those who are struggling in the industry try to eat the resources of the state to survive."
Unfortunately, the signals from the new Lula government are quite negative. Industry and Commerce Minister Geraldo Alckmin recently announced a plan of incentives for the automobile industry, which is essentially the same program that has failed several times in the past. There are positive things coming from his ministry, but few of them have much to do directly with a well-made industrial policy. It's a shame.
His plans beyond industrial policy appear positive, as shown in the following excerpt, at least: "Brazil had an early deindustrialization. Europe also deindustrialized, but ours was precarious and severe. More than reindustrializing, we need a neo-reindustrialization. A central issue is the competitiveness agenda. There is a principle in medicine that says: suppress the cause and the effect ceases. We have to act on the causes of low growth. Our tax model generates an absurd cost for companies. It is not fair. We have an absurd judicialization that leads to legal insecurity and hinders exports. The whole world has a VAT (value added tax. I defend it. I think Haddad is doing well and I am a great enthusiast of the tax reform."
Probably more than any other politician of expression today, Haddad positions himself as a republican and talks about reducing the patrimonialist distortions of the Brazilian public budget. He talks about "closing the drains of what is called Brazilian patrimonialism" and "ending a series of abuses that have been committed against the fiscal base" of the country. He says that many sectors have been "overly" benefited "with rules established over the decades and that have not been reviewed by any outcome control. Many have expired from the point of view of efficiency, and need to be revoked."
Former Governor of São Paulo (2001 - 2006; 2010 - 2017) and current Vice-President of Brazil and Minister of Industry and Commerce Geraldo Alckmin.
Business Environment
Brazilian productivity has been stagnant for decades. What is causing this? The main suspect is the Brazilian tax system. There is an enormous complexity in the various indirect taxes (ISS, ICMS, PIS/Cofins, and IPI), which forces every company to have an excessively large department dedicated to tax payment. Additionally, numerous divergences of interpretation arise between the Federal Revenue, state authorities, and businesses. On every corner of our cities, there is a specialized tax law office to assist companies in dealing with the extremely high level of litigation in our taxation system. To make matters worse, our indirect taxes discourage investment in locations with higher social returns, as the tax complexity and special tax regimes artificially alter the profitability of investments and production. A general simplification of these taxes, with the adoption of a Value Added Tax, could have an impact on the economy's efficiency equivalent to the Plano Real, which ended hyperinflation.
Even beyond the tax issue, the Brazilian business environment is terrible. According to the World Bank's Doing Business 2020 report, which measures the ease of doing business in 190 countries, Brazil ranks 124th. This problem is related to excessive bureaucracy, unexpected judicial decisions, loopholes in regulatory frameworks, and disrespect for contracts.
The Tax Reform is going to be the government's main priority after the approval of the New Fiscal Anchor. Planning Minister Simone Tebet summed up the reform as follows: "The Tax reform is the only silver bullet that we have to save Brazil."
And here's what Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has said about it: "There is no way to grow Brazil's productivity with this tax system [...] We are developing a tax reform that is even more modern, because it introduces in the national tax system a Value Added Tax that solves a good part of the flaws of the current system that, in my opinion, is the great villain for the low growth rates of our productivity." The idea is to approve the Tax Reform still this year (Haddad talks about doing it in the first semester!).
Special Secretary for Tax Reform Bernard Appy.
Economic Isolation
Brazil has a very closed economy. Among the 160 countries analyzed by the World Bank, the Brazilian economy is only less open than that of Sudan. The average protection applied by Brazil to capital goods is 14 times higher than in Chile and 25 times higher than in Mexico. This is probably the most expressive cause of the low productivity and deindustrialization in Brazil, together with the tax system. Here, I quote the brilliant economist Edmar Bacha: "[The closure of the Brazilian economy during the Geisel government (1974 - 1979)] caused a tremendous drop in the economy's productivity and an increase in the cost of capital goods. And this, I believe, is what lies at the root of our stagnation after the so-called economic miracle (1968-1974). Our industry became unable to compete internationally. And we were forced, because the industry has this extraordinary lobbying capacity, to prevent the redesign of the Brazilian industry to participate in global value chains."
Bacha's argument makes sense: the collapse of GDP growth coincides with the collapse of capital accumulation (the growth rate of the capital stock) after Geisel's government. Why did capital accumulation collapse? Bacha explains that using a decomposition of the investment = savings relationship: K' = s(1/p)v - δ, where K' = capital accumulation, s = savings rate, p = relative price of investment, v = output-capital ratio, and δ = depreciation rate.
Between 1950-1980, the "golden age" of Brazil, K' grew at nearly 9% per year. Between 1981-2014, this number was 3%. Why? Looking at the historical series, the difference is not in savings or depreciation. What happened was that the output-capital ratio fell by about one-third, and the relative price of investment increased by one-third. In other words, the capital requirement per unit of output increased significantly, and at the same time, the price of investment goods rose significantly. According to Bacha, this process occurred between 1973 and 1983, a period in which the Military Government pursued an autarkic economic policy.
The ideal scenario for Brazil would be to open its economy and have an export-oriented industry. The industry we have developed is heavily reliant on our domestic market, without external competition. In the words of economist Nelson Barbosa: "Brazil cannot produce ships, but it can produce airplanes. Brazil does not have car manufacturers, but it has bus manufacturers. Brazil cannot have a domestic production of microelectronics, but it has a good domestic production of electric motors. So we need to study what worked in these sectors to see if it can be replicated in other sectors. All these successful sectors, Embraer, Weg, Marco Polo, are sectors that are competitive in Brazil and in the world. Here is the first clue: correct industrial policies create domestic production that competes domestically and internationally. They are integrated products that import and export extensively. Value chains."
However, an open trade policy without a plan may not be positive either. In Nelson's words: "Development always means increased productivity. Opening the economy can stimulate productivity, but it can also lead to a negative specialization. You can open your economy and become a country that only exports commodities, with an inflated services sector that only sells domestically, with a significant portion of your population relying on informal jobs. Which is what happens in Brazil. So I think trade openness is inevitable, more developed countries are more open, but thinking that just opening up will automatically lead to development is naïve and something we shouldn't do in the 21st century. I believe that strategic trade integration is crucial and necessary for development. Unilateral openness, without any plan, will only reinforce the specialization we already have today."
In any case, it is certain that the current excessive protectionism cannot be maintained. Opening up would allow broader access for companies to (1) cheaper and higher-quality inputs and (2) foreign-produced capital goods and technology, (3) create significant competition effects to invigorate the economy, and (4) create a 'selection effect' that would eliminate losers and favor winners.
But this is the agenda that I am least hopeful about. Trade openness is a topic that faces strong opposition from the Brazilian left and would likely only occur under a moderate center-right government. I hope, at least, that some trade agreements can be reached to open up the economy. The European Union-Mercosur trade agreement would have a significant impact and would be very important but I'm not very hopeful that it'll be approved.
Haddad is still optimistic, though! He said that a more emphatic diplomatic effort will be made starting in the second semester, in a movement that will take advantage of Brazil's leadership in Mercosur and Spain's leadership in the European bloc.
Simone Tebet (Planning Minister) and Fernando Haddad (Finance Minister).
Interest Rates
Interest rates in Brazil are much, much higher than the global average. Our credit is scarce and dysfunctional. Lula likes to repeat that Brazil is a capitalist country without capitalism because there is no credit.
Brazil has the second-highest bank spread in the world, second only to Madagascar. This means that banks in Brazil charge very high interest rates for lending money. To give you an idea, Brazil's bank spread is higher than the average observed in countries at war. There are several reasons for this, but some stand out: (1) savings in Brazil have historically been very low (around 20% of GDP), (2) the government consumes a significant portion of savings to finance itself, and (3) the Brazilian banking sector is extremely concentrated, with a few banks dominating the entire sector.
The other issue in this discussion is the current policy interest rate set by the Central Bank. Brazil currently has the highest real interest rate in the world, at around 9%. The debate about whether this interest level is correct or not is quite active in Brazil, with its proponents arguing that the current Brazilian inflation is demand-driven and pointing to inflation in the services sector and core inflation, while its critics argue that inflation is not demand-driven, pointing to the fact that Brazil has had a negative output gap since 2015 and that supply shocks can explain the inflation in services.
This debate is complex, and it is hard to determine definitively which side is right. Nevertheless, the Central Bank is strongly adhering to the first thesis.
The current Chairman of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto (RCN), is the grandson of an economist of the Military Dictatorship and was appointed by Bolsonaro. He will remain in his position until 2024 due to the new autonomy granted to the Central Bank in 2021. In this scenario, Lula engaged in a public war against RCN, urging him to lower interest rates. The situation became tense, but Lula never showed any willingness to take effective action to remove him, remaining only in rhetoric. Throughout the conflict, Haddad positioned himself as a moderate, playing a certain "good cop, bad cop" game with Lula and gaining trust in the financial market. Apparently, Lula intends to nominate former executive-secretary of the Finance Ministry Gabriel Galípolo to replace RCN in 2024. He was recently appointed as director of monetary policy at the Central Bank, and is widely identified as a heterodox economist.
Haddad's current plan is to stabilize Brazil's deficit to allow for a monetary loosening. Here's what he said: "We are not at a point where fiscal expansion is going to help the economy. If there is room for any stimulus, it will be monetary. If we know how to make the transition, there is room for a lower interest rate, you just have to give security to the monetary authority." He does not seem to be concerned about banking concentration, though.
Chairman of the Central Bank Roberto Campos Neto.
TL;DR
The Brazilian economy has seen very little growth since the the lost decade in the 1980s. One of the primary factors contributing to this stagnation is the economy's low productivity. There are several reasons behind this low productivity, including:

1. Inadequate infrastructure and insufficient investments in its development.
2. A significant delay in comparison to other countries in terms of investing in education.
3. Unreasonable economic protectionism.
4. Private groups exerting undue influence and capturing the Brazilian state (patrimonialism).
5. Failure to adapt our industry to a globalized world.
6. Excessively high bank spreads.
7. A terrible business environment, particularly due to the tax system.

There are other reasons for sure, but I'd say most people would agree those are the most important ones. Also, here's my effortpost on the Workers' Party, in case you haven't read it.

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STORY OF PRETTY FEATHERED FOREHEAD
There was once a baby boy who came into the world with a small cluster of different colored feathers grown fast to his forehead.
From this he derived his name,
"Pretty Feathered Forehead."
He was a very pleasant boy as well as handsome, and he had the respect of the whole tribe. When he had grown up to be a young man, he never, like other young men, made love to any of the tribe's beauties.
Although they were madly in love with him, he never noticed any of them.
There were many handsome girls in the different camps, but he passed them by.
One day he said: "Father, I am going on a visit to the Buffalo nation."
The father gave his consent, and away went the son.
The father and mother suspected the object of their son's visit to the Buffalo nation, and forthwith commenced preparing a fine reception for their intended daughter-in-law.
The mother sewed together ten buffalo hides and painted the brave deeds of her husband on them.
This she made into a commodious tent, and had work bags and fine robes and blankets put inside.
This was to be the tent of their son and daughter-in-law.
In a few weeks the son returned, bringing with him a beautiful Buffalo girl.
The parents of the boy gave a big feast in honor of the occasion, and the son and his wife lived very happily together.
In the course of time a son came to the young couple, and the father was very proud of his boy.
When the boy became a year old, the father said to his wife:
"I am going for a visit to the Elk nation."
The mother was very sad, as she knew her husband was going after another wife.
He returned, bringing with him a very beautiful elk girl.
When the Buffalo woman saw the elk girl she was very downcast and sad, but the husband said:
"Don't be sad; she will do all the heavy work for you."
They lived quite happily together for a long time.
The Elk girl also became the mother of a fine boy.
The two boys had grown up large enough to play around.
One day the Elk woman was tanning hides outside and the two boys were playing around near their mothers, when all at once the buffalo boy ran across the robe, leaving his tracks on the white robe which his step-mother had nearly completed.
This provoked the elk woman and she gave vent to her feelings by scolding the boy:
"You clumsy flat mouth, why couldn't you run around my work, instead of across it?"
The buffalo cow standing in the door, heard every word that the elk woman had said, and when she heard her son called flat mouth it made her very angry, although she did not say a word to any one.
She hurriedly gathered some of her belongings and, calling her son, she started off in a westerly direction.
The husband being absent on a hunting expedition did not return until late in the afternoon.
Upon his return his oldest boy always ran out to meet him, but this time as the boy did not put in an appearance, the father feared that something had happened to the boy.
So hurriedly going to his tent he looked around, but failing to see the boy or his mother, he asked his elk wife, where the boy and his mother were.
The elk wife answered: "She took her boy on her back and started off in that direction," (pointing towards the west).
"How long has she been gone?" "Since early morning."
The husband hurriedly caught a fresh horse and, without eating anything, rode off in the direction taken by his buffalo wife and boy.
Near dark he ascended a high hill and noticed a small tent down in the valley.
It was a long distance down to the tent, so it was very late when he arrived there.
He tethered his horse and went into the tent and found the boy and his mother fast asleep. Upon lying down beside them the boy awoke, and upon seeing his father, motioned to him to go outside with him.
On going outside the boy told his father that it would be useless for him to try and coax his mother to return, as she was too highly insulted by the elk wife to ever return.
Then the boy told about what the elk wife had said and that she had called him flat mouth. "My mother is determined to return to her people, but if you want to follow us you may, and perhaps, after she has visited with her relatives a little while, you may induce her to return with you.
In the morning we are going to start very early, and as the country we will travel through is very hard soil,
I will stamp my feet hard so as to leave my tracks imprinted in the softest places, then you will be able to follow the direction we will take."
The two went into the tent and were soon fast asleep.
The father, being very much fatigued, slept very soundly, and when he awoke the sun was beating down upon him.
The mother and boy were nowhere to be seen.
The tent had been taken down from over him so carefully that he had not been awakened.
Getting his horse, he mounted and rode after the two who had left him sleeping.
He had no trouble in following the trail, as the boy had stamped his feet hard and left his little tracks in the soft places.
That evening he spied the little tent again and on getting to it found them both asleep.
The boy awoke and motioned for his father to go outside.
He again told his father that the next day's travel would be the hardest of all.
"We will cross a great plain, but before we get there we will cross a sandy hollow.
When you get to the hollow, look at my tracks; they will be deep into the sand, and in each track you will see little pools of water.
Drink as much as you can, as this is the only chance you will get to have a drink, there being no water from there to the big ridge, and it will be dark by the time you get to the ridge.
The relations of my mother live at that ridge and I will come and talk to you once more, before I leave you to join my mother's people."
Next morning, as before, he awoke to find himself alone.
They had left him and proceeded on their journey.
He mounted again and when he arrived at the sandy hollow, sure enough, there, deep in the sand, were the tracks of his son filled to the top with water.
He drank and drank until he had drained the last one.
Then he arose and continued on the trail, and near sundown he came in sight of their little tent away up on the side of the ridge.
His horse suddenly staggered and fell forward dead, having died of thirst.
From there he proceeded on foot.
When he got to where the tent stood he entered, only to find it empty.
"I guess my son intends to come here and have his last talk with me," thought the father.
He had eaten nothing for three days, and was nearly famished.
He lay down, but the pangs of hunger kept sleep away.
He heard footsteps outside and lay in readiness, thinking it might be an enemy.
Slowly opening the covering of the door, his son looked in and seeing his father lying awake, drew back and ran off up the ridge, but soon returned bringing a small parcel with him. When he entered he gave the parcel to his father and said: "Eat, father; I stole this food for you, so I could not get very much."
The father soon ate what his son had brought.
When he had finished, the son said: "Tomorrow morning the relatives of my mother will come over here and take you down to the village.
My mother has three sisters who have their work bags made identically the same as mother's.
Were they to mix them up they could not each pick out her own without looking inside so as to identify them by what they have in them.
You will be asked to pick out mother's work bag, and if you fail they will trample you to death.
Next they will tell you to pick out my mother from among her sisters, and you will be unable to distinguish her from the other three, and if you fail they will bury you alive.
The last they will try you on, in case you meet the first and second tests successfully, will be to require you to pick me out from my three cousins, who are as much like me as my reflection in the water.
The bags you can tell by a little pebble I will place on my mother's.
You can pick my mother out by a small piece of grass which I will put in her hair, and you can pick me out from my cousins, for when we commence to dance, I will shake my head, flop my ears and switch my tail.
You must choose quickly, as they will be very angry at your success, and if you lose any time they will make the excuse that you did not know, that they may have an excuse to trample you to death."
The boy then left, after admonishing his father to remember all that he had told him.
Early next morning the father heard a great rumbling noise, and going outside, he saw the whole hillside covered with buffalo.
When he appeared they set up a loud bellowing and circled around him.
One old bull came up and giving a loud snort, passed on by, looking back every few steps. The man, thinking he was to follow this one, did so, and the whole herd, forming a half circle around him, escorted him down the west side of the range out on to a large plain, where there stood a lone tree.
To this tree the old bull led him and stopped when he reached the tree.
A large rock at the foot of the tree served as a seat for the man.
As soon as he was seated there came four female buffaloes, each bearing a large work box.
They set the boxes down in a row in front of the man, and the herd crowded around closer in order to get a good view.
The old bull came to the front and stood close to the bags, which had been taken out of the four boxes.
The man stood up, and looking at the bags, noticed a small pebble resting on the one next to the left end.
Stepping over he pulled the bag towards him and secretly pushed the little pebble off the bag, so that no one would notice it.
When they saw that he had selected the right one, they set up a terrific bellow.
Then came the four sisters and stood in a line before the man.
Glancing along from the one on the right to the last one on the left, he stepped forward and placed his hand on the one next to the right.
Thanks to his boy, if he hadn't put that little stem of grass on his mother's hair, the father could never have picked out his wife, as the four looked as much alike as four peas.
Next came the four boy calves, and as they advanced they commenced dancing, and his son was shaking his head and flopping his ears and switching his tail.
The father was going to pick out his boy, when a fainting spell took him, and as he sank to the ground the old bull sprang forward on top of him, and instantly they rushed upon him and he was soon trampled to a jelly.
The herd then moved to other parts.
The elk wife concluded that something had happened to her husband and determined upon going in search of him.
As she was very fleet of foot it did not take her long to arrive at the lone tree.
She noticed the blood splashed on the base of the tree, and small pieces of flesh stamped into the earth.
Looking closer, she noticed something white in the dust.
Stooping and picking it out of the dust, she drew forth the cluster of different colored feathers which had been fastened to her husband's forehead.
She at once took the cluster of feathers, and going to the east side of the ridge, heated stones and erected a wickieup, placed the feathers inside, and getting water, she sprinkled the stones, and this caused a thick vapor in the wickieup.
She continued this for a long time, when she heard something moving inside the wickieup. Then a voice spoke up, saying: "Whoever you are, pour some more water on and I will be all right."
So the woman got more water and poured it on the rocks. "That will do now, I want to dry off."
She plucked a pile of sage and in handing it in to him, he recognized his elk wife's hand.
They went back home and shortly after the buffalo, hearing about him coming back to life, decided to make war on him and kill him and his wife, she being the one who brought him back to life.
The woman, hearing of this, had posts set in the ground and a strong platform placed on top.
When the buffalo came, her husband, her son and herself, were seated upon the bough platform, and the buffalo could not reach them.
She flouted her red blanket in their faces, which made the buffalo wild with rage.
The hunter's friends came to his rescue, and so fast were they killing the buffalo that they took flight and rushed away, never more to bother Pretty Feather Forehead.