Battle of Massachusetts Bay
With the U.S. Navy strategically positioned in Narragansett Bay, Commanding General Winfield Scott collaborated with Rear Admiral Charles Stewart to implement an effective blockade strategy. The plan entailed Stewart undertaking a blockade of the Massachusetts Bay to sever the supply lines to Boston and Quincy. Scott and Stewart, both high-ranking military officials, believed that this tactic would not only diminish the morale of the opposing troops through deprivation but also establish a passage for the deployment of troops and vessels via the bay, facilitating a two-front invasion.
On February 9th, Rear Admiral Stewart initiated an attack, marking the beginning of a relentless naval bombardment. The assault commenced with the arrival of a formidable U.S. Navy fleet led by Commodore Matthew C. Perry. This fleet consisted of several warships, including steam-powered vessels armed with heavy cannons, and had the objective to displace the existing Yankee presence patrolling the bay and establish their own presence in their place.
The naval bombardment unleashed a relentless barrage of cannon fire and explosive shells upon the opposing ships and fortifications in the bay. The American warships strategically positioned themselves, utilizing their superior firepower and extended range to wreak havoc on the enemy's defenses. Under the command of Rear Admiral John C. Percival, the Yankee forces fiercely attempted to resist the onslaught, returning fire from their ship's cannons stationed along the coast. However, the overwhelming firepower and precision of the American navy proved to be a decisive advantage.
The intense naval bombardment took a toll on the ships engaged in battle. After four days of relentless fighting, on February 13th, Rear Admiral Percival ordered a retreat as U.S. ships swiftly filled the void, effectively establishing a blockade of the Massachusetts Bay. The withdrawal was necessitated by the overwhelming presence and continued firepower of the American Navy, ensuring their control over the strategic waterway.
Battle of Cambridge
strategy and focused on capturing Cambridge as a means to take control of Boston, Massachusetts. Cambridge's strategic importance stemmed from its proximity to Boston and its position on the opposite side of the Charles River, making it a crucial gateway to the city. Gaining control of Cambridge would provide an invading force with a foothold on the eastern side of the river, potentially facilitating easier access to Boston itself.
On Monday, February 20th, Winfield Scott began mobilizing troops along the borders of neighboring settlements, including Quincy, Watertown, and Allston. However, it wasn't until the 28th that Scott issued the order for troops to initiate an assault, once he had assembled a substantial force of 4,000 soldiers along the border. Meanwhile, armed with intelligence regarding the movements of the U.S. troops, Churchill anticipated an attack on either Cambridge or Boston and took defensive measures, including fortifications and deploying troops in both cities.
On the 27th, Scott held consultations with John E. Wool and Thomas J. Worth, informing them of his intended timing for launching the offensive. He designated Wool to lead an attack from Quincy and Worth to lead from Watertown. Wool would assume the role of commanding general for the battle, while Scott and Rear Admiral Charles Stewart focused on developing the strategy for the subsequent phase of the plan—the capture of Boston.
On the 28th, Major General Wool initiated his division's march towards Cambridge in an attempt to avoid detection by Sylvester Churchill's troops, whom he believed were deployed in the settlements between Quincy and Cambridge. To minimize the risk of exposure, Wool decided to commence the march early in the morning, navigating through rural and wooded areas to evade Yankee troops. Following the same tactics, Worth also set out towards Cambridge later as instructed.
In the late morning, Worth launched the assault by mobilizing artillery to weaken the defenses. However, the Yankee forces were already prepared and swiftly retaliated with a relentless barrage of fire upon the advancing troops. This intense exchange of fire between Worth's army and the defending Yankee soldiers persisted for nearly an hour.
Meanwhile, Wool's army continued its stealthy march through the woodlands and rural areas. Upon hearing the sound of gunfire in the distance, Wool deduced that the battle had begun prematurely and hastily directed the rest of his troops towards the source of the noise. Arriving nearly an hour into the battle, Wool's troops witnessed a fierce encounter between both sides, resulting in a stalemate. Nevertheless, Wool ordered his soldiers to target the Yankee soldiers with their rifles, creating space for Worth's men to fire artillery.
As the relentless barrage of artillery took its toll on the city's defenses, Childs, the commanding officer, ordered troops to reposition themselves further away from the crumbling defenses in anticipation of their eventual collapse. The troops followed the orders accordingly. Finally, around 3:00 P.M., the defenses started to give way, prompting Wool to command his troops to rush into Cambridge. However, they were met with a defensive line of Yankee soldiers who unleashed a volley of fire as soon as the U.S. soldiers entered the city. Simultaneously, Childs instructed soldiers to inform Churchill that both major generals had attacked Cambridge and to relocate troops from Boston to reinforce the defense of Cambridge.
Meanwhile, U.S. troops under the command of Major General Wool employed flanking maneuvers on both sides of the defensive line. Despite encountering difficulties in breaching the line, the U.S. troops persisted. After holding together for nearly two hours, the defensive line eventually collapsed under the pressure of the flanking maneuvers, leading to a breakthrough for the U.S. forces.
Illustration depicting the Battle of Cambridge, a fierce encounter between American and Yankee troops. The artwork portrays American and Yankee soldiers engaged in a fierce firefight.
With the significant breakthrough, U.S. forces swiftly advanced into Cambridge, pushing Yankee troops deeper into the settlement. Meanwhile, Childs made efforts to reorganize and create a diversion to buy enough time for Churchill's larger army to arrive. Eventually, as evening fell, Churchill appeared on the scene with the majority of his troops from Boston, adding 2,000 soldiers to their forces. This sudden increase in numbers enabled the Yankee forces to reclaim much of the territory in Cambridge that had been captured by the U.S. Army. Despite their success, the U.S. army's superior size and technological advancements prevented them from being entirely driven out of Cambridge.
As dusk approached, the battle persisted through the night, resulting in significant casualties on both sides. However, with a larger army, the U.S. forces fared better than the Yankees in enduring the losses, allowing them to gradually advance into Cambridge and reclaim lost territory. Throughout the night and into the morning, the conflict continued, with the darkness posing challenges for troops to coordinate tactical maneuvers. Consequently, engaging in intense hand-to-hand combat, the U.S. forces successfully pushed the opposition off the streets and deeper into Cambridge.
As the sun rose on the horizon, Sylvester Churchill made a bold move in an attempt to shift the course of the battle and thwart the advancing Americans from seizing what the commanding general deemed the final bastion of defense before they could effectively reach Boston. Determined to alter the tide of the conflict, Churchill issued orders for his troops to divide into smaller units, engaging in street fighting and employing guerrilla tactics. Churchill hoped that these strategic maneuvers would tip the scales of the battle in their favor.
Despite Churchill's optimism, Yankee tactics proved ineffective in impeding the U.S. invasion. Under the command of Wool, American troops strategically focused on maintaining a strong and unified front and countering the units employed by Churchill. The ambush and guerrilla tactics employed by the Yankees failed to overcome the superior size and strength of Wool's forces, leading to their defeat. Eventually, in the evening, as the city neared complete capture by American forces, Churchill consulted with his top military officials, including Major Generals Thomas Childs, Joseph Gilbert Totten, and Gideon Johnson Pillow, to negotiate a treaty with Wool. This treaty became the most notable agreement signed on the Atlantic Coast since the Second Siege of New Haven, which had occurred nearly a year prior.
During the negotiations, it was agreed that both armies would remain in a total armistice until a deal was reached. After intense discussions, the following terms were included in the final agreement:

• Both armies agreed to refrain from engaging in any hostilities against each other in the region for a minimum of six weeks.
• Prisoners of war from New England, captured during both the war and the previous Massachusetts campaign, were to be released and allowed to return to their homes. Wool advocated for similar conditions for American prisoners of war, but due to the presence of additional Yankee reinforcements in Boston and the Massachusetts militia, he ultimately withdrew his request, as he was concerned that these reinforcements could shift the balance of power in the Battle of Cambridge, should battle reignite.
• The American army were to occupy the City of Cambridge and its buildings, as the Yankee army would withdraw.
• That New England troops were allowed to withdraw from the city with their personal arms and equipment, including artillery and ammunition
• Residents of Cambridge were permitted to remain in their homes and continue their daily activities without interruption.

The Boston Address
With the United Kingdom's agreement to join the war on February 6th, 1843, Samuel Cabot Jr. eagerly anticipated returning to New England to deliver the news. However, due to harsh weather conditions and ships already departing with letters and newspapers to inform Americans of this revelation, Cabot and his diplomats decided to postpone their voyage by a week, hoping for an improvement in the weather. Eventually, on February 13th, the diplomats set sail once again across the treacherous Atlantic Ocean, with Captain Nathaniel Brown Palmer resuming command of their ship, the "Columbia."
On Tuesday, March 21st, 1843, after several weeks at sea, the diplomats arrived at Massachusetts Bay, their intended docking destination since their departure. However, they were surprised to find foreign American ships occupying the bay, completely unaware of the ongoing armistice. Acting swiftly, the diplomats instructed Captain Palmer to redirect the vessels towards New Bedford, a port controlled by the Yankee navy. Previous attempts by U.S. forces, led by Admiral Mathew C. Perry to capture Buzzard's Bay had been unsuccessful. As a result, Rear Admiral Charles Stewart made the decision to modify the plan and forgo a coastal blockade of the region, as it was no longer deemed crucial. Thus, the diplomats successfully made an unplanned landing and found a secure harbor for their ship.
Upon receiving news of their impending arrival, which quickly spread throughout New England, the diplomats would be swiftly escorted to Daniel Webster's presidential office at the Hartford Estate in Boston, Massachusetts. Traveling via a stagecoach, they would soon reach their destination. As they arrived, they would be promptly ushered into Webster's office. Despite being aware of Britain's entry into the war, Webster anxiously awaited the arrival of his diplomats, as they had not arrived at the expected time.
The diplomats arrived to find Daniel Webster in an unexpectedly cheerful state, a stark contrast to his demeanor throughout his presidency. Webster had been burdened by a series of defeats in the War of 1839, Dorr's revolt, and the overall frustrations associated with his role as president. These hardships led Webster to seek solace in alcohol, resulting in alcoholism that became his coping mechanism for the grief caused by his presidential responsibilities. Furthermore, the weight of his challenges contributed to his depression, transforming him into a recluse who rarely ventured out of his office and spent a significant portion of his presidency consumed by excessive drinking.
Nevertheless, upon hearing the news of Britain's involvement in the war, Webster's spirits were lifted, restoring a sense of optimism within him that had not been seen since his presidential campaign. He eagerly, yet somewhat intoxicated, welcomed the diplomats into his office to engage in discussions regarding the Downing Street Conference, the negotiations, and the developments involving George Hamilton-Gordon, the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, and Prime Minister Robert Peel. Samuel Cabot Jr. relayed to Daniel Webster the concessions made on behalf of New England, which included a promise not to reinstate the Fugitive Acts, along with providing the intricate details of the conference(s).
On March 23rd, 1843 at the Federal States Hotel, in the midst of a challenging period for his administration, Daniel Webster, in an effort to regain public trust and address the critical newspapers that had emerged throughout his term, delivered one of the rare public speeches of the War of 1839. Throughout his term, newspapers critical of the Webster administration had become prevalent across New England. However, due to the Sedition Acts, these newspapers were eventually shut down. Moreover, the Federalists suffered significant electoral defeats during Webster's tenure, aware of the need to restore faith among citizens regarding the war and his administration, Webster took the opportunity to speak directly to the public, using his speech as a means to provide reassurance and address the challenges his administration faced.
Snippet of Webster's two-and-a-half-hour, "The Boston Address" speech:
[1] "Ladies and gentlemen,
I stand before you today, filled with the spirit of liberty and the burning desire to protect our great New England from the encroachments of tyranny and oppression. We find ourselves embroiled in a conflict of great magnitude, a war that will determine the very course of our destiny. Let it be known that this is no ordinary war, for it is a war fought not only with steel and powder, but with the indomitable will and unwavering determination of Yankee troops.
[2] My fellow countrymen, we gather here in the shadow of history, surrounded by the echoes of our forefathers who fought valiantly for the principles of freedom and justice. Today, we find ourselves faced with a foe whose arrogance knows no bounds, a foe that seeks to trample upon our liberties and extinguish the flame of independence that burns within every New Englander's heart. The United States of America, once our brethren, has once again forsaken the ideals of our Founding Fathers and has chosen to walk the path of oppression.
[9] Yet, let it not be forgotten that our cause is just and our resolve unyielding. Weeks ago, on the fateful day of February 6th, the United Kingdom, recognizing the righteousness of our struggle, joined our noble cause. The world now watches as the might of the British Empire stands united with us, against the very nation from which we once sought solace and support. This alliance is a testament to the righteousness of our cause, for it is not merely a battle of arms, but a battle of principles and ideals.
[15] This war is not just a struggle for independence; it is a fight against the abhorrent institution of slavery. The Fugitive Acts that have been passed by the United States have violated the very fabric of our moral conscience. They seek to rob men and women of their natural rights, to tear families apart, and to perpetuate an evil that stains the pages of our history. We, as New Englanders, must rise up against this injustice and prove to the world that we will not stand idly by while our fellow human beings suffer under the yoke of bondage.
[17] It is a fight to prove that New England is truly independent from America. We have defeated the United States once, and we can do it again. The blood that flows through our veins is the blood of patriots, of those who dared to challenge the status quo and forge a new path. We stand upon the shoulders of giants, and it is our duty to honor their sacrifice by preserving the principles they held dear. As we march forward, let us remember the sacrifices of those who came before us, and let their legacy guide us through the darkest of times.
[18] This war is not just about reclaiming our independence; it is a battle for the soul of our nation. It is a struggle to define the values and principles upon which our society is built. We fight for liberty, equality, and justice. We fight to ensure that the principles of our Founding Fathers are not trampled upon and forgotten. We fight to create a society where every person, regardless of their race or background, is treated with dignity and respect.
[21] This is a fight against the remnants of oppression and injustice. The Fugitive Acts, once passed by both the United States and New England, were a stain on our collective conscience. They sought to deny individuals their natural rights, tear families apart, and perpetuate the abhorrent institution of slavery. Recognizing the moral imperative to rectify this injustice, New England took a bold step forward and repealed these acts, paving the way for a more equitable society.
[22] Let us not forget the lessons of our past, for they shape the path we tread today. The New England Revolutionary War, fought with valor and determination, paved the way for our quest for independence. Our ancestors stood united against oppression, and their courage echoes in our hearts. And let us also remember the Hartford Convention, a pivotal moment in our history. It was there that our regional identity was forged, as we asserted our rights and voiced our grievances against unjust policies. From the fires of adversity, we emerged stronger, more resolute in our determination to protect our liberties and safeguard the interests of New England.
[26] Like their forefathers, in the face of adversity, our Yankee troops have shown a courage and determination that is unparalleled. They have weathered the storm of American aggression and stood firm in their conviction. They fight not only for the land upon which they tread but for the principles that make New England unique and distinct. They fight for the freedom of every man, woman, and child who calls this great region home.
[29] This war is not just a struggle for soveriegnity; it is a fight against the abhorrent institution of slavery. The Fugitive Acts that have been passed by the United States have violated the very fabric of our moral conscience. They seek to rob men of their natural rights, to tear families apart, and to perpetuate an evil that stains the pages of our history. We, as New Englanders, must rise up against this injustice and prove to the world that we will not stand idly by while our fellow human beings suffer under the yoke of bondage.
[31] As we engage in this epic struggle, let us not forget the sacrifices that have been made. Our brave soldiers have left their homes and families behind to fight for a cause they hold dear. They have endured the harsh realities of war, facing danger and uncertainty at every turn. We must honor their sacrifices by supporting them in every way possible, by standing behind them and providing them with the resources and care they need.
[34] This war is also a test of our unity and resilience as a people. We must put aside our differences and come together as one. We must recognize that the fight for freedom and justice knows no boundaries. It transcends political affiliations and personal interests. We must stand together, shoulder to shoulder, and show the world the strength and determination of the New England spirit.
[37] In this war, we are not alone. The international community watches as our struggle unfolds. The United Kingdom has joined our cause, recognizing the importance of our fight. We stand together, united in our commitment to freedom and justice. Our alliance sends a powerful message to the world that New England will not be silenced, that we will fight for what is right and just.
[41] We must also remember that the fight against slavery is central to this war. Slavery is a stain on the conscience of our nation. It is a practice that dehumanizes and oppresses our fellow human beings. We cannot and will not tolerate such an abomination. By fighting against slavery, we not only strike at the heart of injustice but also reaffirm our commitment to the principles of equality and freedom.
[43] As we engage in this great struggle, let us draw inspiration from the heroes of our past. Let us remember the battles fought by our forefathers, the sacrifices they made, and the triumphs they achieved. Their legacy lives on in us, and it is our duty to carry their torch forward.
[46] This war is not just about defeating the United States; it is about shaping the future of our region and our nation. It is about establishing New England as a beacon of liberty and progress. We have already demonstrated our ability to stand against the might of a powerful nation, and we can do it again. We have the strength, the courage, and the conviction to overcome any obstacle that stands in our way.
[49] In conclusion, my fellow New Englanders, let us remember why we fight. Let us remember the principles that have guided us throughout our history. We fight for independence, for freedom, for justice, and for the eradication of slavery. We fight to prove that New England is truly independent from America, and we fight to demonstrate our unwavering commitment to the principles of liberty and equality.
[51] As we march forward, let us do so with the knowledge that we are not alone. We are supported by the might of the British Empire, by the solidarity of our fellow New Englanders, and by the principles of justice and righteousness that guide our cause. Together, we will prevail. Together, we will overcome every challenge and obstacle that comes our way.
[53] May the spirit of our forefathers guide us, and may the determination of our Yankee troops inspire us. Let us write the next chapter of our history with courage, resilience, and unwavering conviction. The future of New England is in our hands, and we will forge it with honor and integrity. God bless New England, and God bless the cause for which we fight!"
​
President Daniel Webster addresses the citizens of Boston at the Federal States Hotel (United States Hotel) in an illustration capturing his lengthy two-and-a-half-hour \"The Boston Address\" speech. Standing atop a platform, Webster delivers his passionate speech, while the crowd erupts in cheers, energized by his fiery words. Meanwhile, within the hotel, the wives of soldiers protest the war's extension by throwing trash at Webster.

I said this a few weeks ago and it remains true today… “It is far too early to short this market, but at this point it feels far too late to go long on this market too…” What does that mean? IT means while yes I do think at this rate the VIX could see 12-13 and SPY could see 430-440… at this point counting on this rally to continue feels like pure FOMO, however, counting on this rally to come to a dramatic end feels like straight YOLO…
Another thing here is that while I do think the upside is the ease of momentum right now… the odds we wake up to a bank collapsing or some other black swan event seemingly is increasing as time goes on… this honestly is the worst place the markets could be right now…
The question I hate to be asking myself once again is “What is going to stop this rally?” I feel like for months now we get to these “ideal scenarios” that will finally put the market in its place and take it down etc. etc. and then the market just barely makes it by everytime… The way this thing is shaping up is that this truly is going to be a “this time is different” market recovery from bear market to bull market… OR we are just setting ourselves up for one of the biggest and most unexpected crashes this market has seen…
To Pause or Not to Pause
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https://preview.redd.it/1unexyqj3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=681b5f0f8b66ab06dd93cafcce4b6af4abd8572e
What is the one thing the fed wants but wont directly say they want? That would be higher unemployment rate… this mornings 3.7% UE is the highest reading since December 2022. However, since March 2022 (over a year now) we have NOT gotten a single UE reading over 3.7%.... it seems that the UE hits that level (4 times now over the last 1+ year) and then immediately retraces…
With the highest UE you would have expected the odds of a pause in June to nearly hit 80-90%... however, we are actually seeing a slight pullback here on the odds and now are looking only at a 70.1% chance of a pause in June…
However, of course market is rallying like a pause and rate cuts have already happened.
Is TECH Topping out?
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https://preview.redd.it/d4c5ka7k3o3b1.png?width=963&format=png&auto=webp&s=28fbb5b7050458bfb8a9814bba6136e6e250ab64
In the screenshot above you will see the breadth of S&P500, NASDAQ and NYSE… what does this show? Well in simple terms this shows the buying/ selling pressure of the market… 0 is neutral… what is very interesting to me here is that this is now the second day in a row that the NASD has lagged SPY and NYSE in the buying pressure… what does that mean? Well it means that for the last two days this rally was not led by TECH like previously…
This is very evident by the heatchart here (taken near EOD)… what does it show? IT shows outside of communication services (which BTW took a big hit due to the amazon news as a whole) that TECH was the WEAKEST member today… this is a big deal… now there are two possibilities here… Market is rotating out of tech and into more small/ mid caps and going risk on because they truly believe the upside is the only way…. However, on the hand this could show that big money finally is slowing down here… I wish I had a way to show you guys for sure but the data im seeing is that the last few days has been heavily retail driven and not big money driven…
JPM COLLAR
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https://preview.redd.it/uscrr1sk3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=683550b60e60ba4b5b8f5b25e3c8daa4bdaded7d
Almost exactly two months ago we were post JPM collar roll and I mentioned the history of Futes hitting the sold call level of the collar (or within at least 100 pts of it)… very rarely do we completely pass it but it is possible… my timing assumed we would hit it the 7th week of the trend but it would appear that we are doing it at week 9…
Now the true question is…. Will this pullback like it historically has after reaching the sold call level of the collar leading into the rotation of the collar (June 30th)?
UNTRADABLE
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https://preview.redd.it/wknaoc9l3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ecf180515546881d405b7a887f06b6fd17b152f
I very rarely show a 15min intraday chart nor do I include it here but I think its worth it today… why? Well if you look at this chart today I would say that from 1030 until 1115am that was the ONLY time that SPY was easily tradeable today… the opening hour was extremely volatile and unforgiven… I attempted numerous times to catch plays on the way up and down and was not able to get in because SPX premiums were moving $2 in one second… just incredible movement…
If you trusted the extreme momentum of 1030 to 1115am you made some money… From there honestly I can whole heartedly say that from 1115am until EOD it was nothing but bull and bear traps… I haven’t seen so many bear traps in one day… I have never ever seen so many technicals are one time pointing to a put play only for the market to continue to push higher… just absolutely incredible movement on the markets today… This was a clear trend day as evidence by not touching or closing under 20ema all day besides one fast wick during opening hour… however, this was one of the choppiest extreme momentum days ive seen in a while…
Ive said it before 2022 was hard mode in the markets… 2023 is turning into expert mode in the markets.
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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https://preview.redd.it/jny57url3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc8912062a0d3c1c9f39a8b4cd1dcfdd22209196
From the daily supply and demand here we did not do anything new… we did attempt to touch 429.68 supply and id fall just short of it… this gap up has us sitting between 422.04 and 429.68 supply.
We did however get a fake wave down (half wave) on the DMI and now the DMI is waving bullishly.
SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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https://preview.redd.it/m1om0q7m3o3b1.png?width=970&format=png&auto=webp&s=2663fdff9743142fd1633bd59b4c20ae1e04cb39
From a weekly stand point here we were attempting to make a new supply up until Thursday when we rallied. However, the two day pump has put us once again with no new supply and with a weekly DMI that is overbought and with a weekly chart in extreme bull momentum.
With a closure over 427.35 weekly supply we honestly have a huge gap to our next major level which is 453.23.
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION
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https://preview.redd.it/q9fmkdnm3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=dff3eb11b199a34ec613c287269041d50aa24996
I really zoomed out here on the daily so you can see exactly where some of these trend lines are at… we have officially broken upwards out of the red rising wedge that we have been trading in since the end of February… this now becomes a bull channel which is represented by the blue line… we are also in a shorter term black bull channel that we have been in since May 23rd.
With a SPY daily closure at 427.92 this is the highest level that we have closed at since August 16th which was 429.7 and also was the top of the august rally and led us to our 52 week low sell off…
SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
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https://preview.redd.it/o6dk2q5n3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=653e4327e6a19101f47140ca5bf4f29afc940866
On the weekly we have officially closed our highest WEEKLY candle since the week of April 11th… not only that but we did close over the August peaks high and we now are in this 427.3 to 453.3 trading channel (orange).
The weekly has closed over the weekly 8ema for 10 times in a row… that has not happened since August to September of 2021…
With a breakout through the black and orange resistance lines… our next target is either the blue bull channel which gives us resistance at 439.4 next week or the red/ blue rising wedge at 435.23.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 Support- 427.3 -> 421.9 -> 418.5 Resistance- 431.7 -> 436.9
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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https://preview.redd.it/4wzvpemn3o3b1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=139488b18da9e5e3f63941e45046db770204cc48
Futures daily also has no change here… we are now targeting our next supply at 4311… DMI also now in a half wave down which means we are waving up bullishly..
FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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https://preview.redd.it/4qrwws0o3o3b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6a94f5d2a38cc0a1d1c1e84e4f64027291173a3
On the weekly timeframe here we have now bounced off 4130 demand (after establishing it) and have pushed through 4193 and 4384 supplies… this means our next upside target is 4540… Weekly remains in a bullish DMI wave up and bullish extreme momentum… at this point it is absolutely silly to short this.
FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION
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https://preview.redd.it/v65dngjo3o3b1.png?width=889&format=png&auto=webp&s=a58e328e2d88c300148d068a3a923116b8b6dc13
Since I showed such a far out chart on SPY I will show more zoomed in here on futes… we have broken through the red rising wedge which now makes this the red/ blue bull channel. We are also in a almost month long black bull channel.
The resistance of this channel is 4357 and support is 4203 for Monday.
FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
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https://preview.redd.it/2m0f63xo3o3b1.png?width=797&format=png&auto=webp&s=0daef95d367c701168a8cea98ddaa972ed1a3c25
On the weekly timeframe here we have broken through the shorter term black and red rising wedges… which pretty much solidifies us in this blue bull channel since early march. Channel resistance is 4420 and support is 4168.
Futures also is notching out just barely its highest close since April 2022. We are also coming in hot on these 4300 CC of the JPM collar and in two weeks will be at the 11th week post collar roll…
With this closure over 4280 we officially are in the 4280 to 4540.
FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Demand- 4130 Support- 4280 -> 4238 -> 4215 Resistance- 4238 -> 4392
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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https://preview.redd.it/7qc0w0ep3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fd1bca3fc1464aa93b5a06978077e7e2a0f2701
Interestingly enough here honestly QQQ daily looks very weak… weak enough that if you had the grit one could actually short QQQ over the weekend… however, we are in daily and weekly extreme bull momentum so you are severely fighting the trend which is why I do not recommend it…
We are now sitting between 352.8 and 357.09 supplies… This doji candle could lead to a slight pullback and retrace to put in a new supply at 354.64 on Monday… support would be 347.93 if we did that… the DMI is still waving down and on Monday should complete that wave down…
To the upside our target remains 357.09 and 361.7
QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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https://preview.redd.it/hr0ez5up3o3b1.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=2668702bd0d320d53cbb910a9fa7eaa1ef5b0a52
QQQ weekly is absolutely begging for a pullback with a weekly DMI and supply/ demand indicator about as overbought as it possibly can be… This candle could as a weekly hanging man lead to a retrace next week… If we did that we would definitely add a new supply at 354.85. Our target for a bounce would be the weekly 8ema… This also is QQQs highest weekly close since the week of April 4th 2022.
If we continue this upside run next week we have a supply at 361.85 to watch and then from there we have a pretty big resistance level at 382.9-384.54 to keep an eye on.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 382.9 -> 384.54
VIX
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https://preview.redd.it/sfi1947q3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=28a7de277dc50c6c68970a1f5b6b0fa8693854de
Yesterday I mentioned there was a high probability that we would get the VIX into the 14s… now I did not expect it to go as low as it did but absolutely incredible drop on the VIX… Here is some fun facts about just how low the VIX is right now…
Today- LOD 14.42, Close 14.6 October 21st 2021- LOD 14.92, Close 15 June 29th 2021- LOD 14.1, Close 16.03 July 2nd 2021- LOD 14.25, Close 15.08 February 19th 2020- LOD 14.21, Close 14.38
This is the 3rd lowest level the VIX has hitting since Pre-COVID… this also is the lowest level that the VIX has closed at since Pre-COVID…
At these levels… the VIX is saying “we are at pre-covid fear in the markets and we are at pre-covid bull market levels.”
Just for correlation here… SPY closed at 338.34 on Feb 19th, 433.72 on July 2nd, 427.7 on June 29th and 453.59 on October 21st… On average that means of the 4 lowest VIX readings in the last almost 2.5 years… SPY has an average closing price of 413.33… however, as you can see in July and June SPY was at the 427.7 to 433.72 level which is nearly perfect correlation to where we closed today…
WEEKLY TRADING LOG
​
https://preview.redd.it/4iv24prq3o3b1.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e47e7916dc29bdddc209aba2bdc55627ace5edd
Now today up until 130pm felt like an absolutely massive win mentally for me… I recognized the market and the trend… I recognized that the “perfect put opportunity” was actually the call entry in disguise… and I did really really good capitalizing on that and was up quite a bit… however, then came the 130 timeframe…
It all went downhill getting stopped out attempting to play the support bounce with a call… and then from there I lost on two puts in a row on what looked like the worlds greatest put opportunities… the one I got absolutely massively stop loss hunted on and the other I got wrecked on…
Honestly bless up for Mondays, Tuesday and Wednesdays in the market because I will fully admit without shame that Thursday and Fridays have been incredibly difficult for me to trade lately. Honestly from someone who is data driven and highly technical based in what I do… it appears that Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday has been extremely technical based and flows as one would expect both up and down.. however, we get to Thursday and Fridays and its like the market just throws everything out the window and does whatever it wants… highly frustrating… looking forward to the weekend to mentally reset and tackle this market again Monday!

I said this a few weeks ago and it remains true today… “It is far too early to short this market, but at this point it feels far too late to go long on this market too…” What does that mean? IT means while yes I do think at this rate the VIX could see 12-13 and SPY could see 430-440… at this point counting on this rally to continue feels like pure FOMO, however, counting on this rally to come to a dramatic end feels like straight YOLO…
Another thing here is that while I do think the upside is the ease of momentum right now… the odds we wake up to a bank collapsing or some other black swan event seemingly is increasing as time goes on… this honestly is the worst place the markets could be right now…
The question I hate to be asking myself once again is “What is going to stop this rally?” I feel like for months now we get to these “ideal scenarios” that will finally put the market in its place and take it down etc. etc. and then the market just barely makes it by everytime… The way this thing is shaping up is that this truly is going to be a “this time is different” market recovery from bear market to bull market… OR we are just setting ourselves up for one of the biggest and most unexpected crashes this market has seen…
To Pause or Not to Pause
​
https://preview.redd.it/8pc23o2a3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=1bf9523e39051ebd9a8b621c440b8d08bd8fbc46
What is the one thing the fed wants but wont directly say they want? That would be higher unemployment rate… this mornings 3.7% UE is the highest reading since December 2022. However, since March 2022 (over a year now) we have NOT gotten a single UE reading over 3.7%.... it seems that the UE hits that level (4 times now over the last 1+ year) and then immediately retraces…
With the highest UE you would have expected the odds of a pause in June to nearly hit 80-90%... however, we are actually seeing a slight pullback here on the odds and now are looking only at a 70.1% chance of a pause in June…
However, of course market is rallying like a pause and rate cuts have already happened.
Is TECH Topping out?
​
https://preview.redd.it/kotbeuha3o3b1.png?width=963&format=png&auto=webp&s=347cdd066d29ebad2ad234377077e95e54e047d5
In the screenshot above you will see the breadth of S&P500, NASDAQ and NYSE… what does this show? Well in simple terms this shows the buying/ selling pressure of the market… 0 is neutral… what is very interesting to me here is that this is now the second day in a row that the NASD has lagged SPY and NYSE in the buying pressure… what does that mean? Well it means that for the last two days this rally was not led by TECH like previously…
This is very evident by the heatchart here (taken near EOD)… what does it show? IT shows outside of communication services (which BTW took a big hit due to the amazon news as a whole) that TECH was the WEAKEST member today… this is a big deal… now there are two possibilities here… Market is rotating out of tech and into more small/ mid caps and going risk on because they truly believe the upside is the only way…. However, on the hand this could show that big money finally is slowing down here… I wish I had a way to show you guys for sure but the data im seeing is that the last few days has been heavily retail driven and not big money driven…
JPM COLLAR
​
https://preview.redd.it/2z45k2ya3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9d5ede040f38c47ace66fe712dbc42cd878b003
Almost exactly two months ago we were post JPM collar roll and I mentioned the history of Futes hitting the sold call level of the collar (or within at least 100 pts of it)… very rarely do we completely pass it but it is possible… my timing assumed we would hit it the 7th week of the trend but it would appear that we are doing it at week 9…
Now the true question is…. Will this pullback like it historically has after reaching the sold call level of the collar leading into the rotation of the collar (June 30th)?
UNTRADABLE
​
https://preview.redd.it/eyelivbb3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9ae23411a9d133f6b67cd3c38d79c96b6e8fcd8
I very rarely show a 15min intraday chart nor do I include it here but I think its worth it today… why? Well if you look at this chart today I would say that from 1030 until 1115am that was the ONLY time that SPY was easily tradeable today… the opening hour was extremely volatile and unforgiven… I attempted numerous times to catch plays on the way up and down and was not able to get in because SPX premiums were moving $2 in one second… just incredible movement…
If you trusted the extreme momentum of 1030 to 1115am you made some money… From there honestly I can whole heartedly say that from 1115am until EOD it was nothing but bull and bear traps… I haven’t seen so many bear traps in one day… I have never ever seen so many technicals are one time pointing to a put play only for the market to continue to push higher… just absolutely incredible movement on the markets today… This was a clear trend day as evidence by not touching or closing under 20ema all day besides one fast wick during opening hour… however, this was one of the choppiest extreme momentum days ive seen in a while…
Ive said it before 2022 was hard mode in the markets… 2023 is turning into expert mode in the markets.
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
https://preview.redd.it/62db5ttb3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=7df4fa725bb8e62098a2307d5e84a8cb8dd73800
From the daily supply and demand here we did not do anything new… we did attempt to touch 429.68 supply and id fall just short of it… this gap up has us sitting between 422.04 and 429.68 supply.
We did however get a fake wave down (half wave) on the DMI and now the DMI is waving bullishly.
SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/h7bv1bhc3o3b1.png?width=970&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c1780193a62cfd8e57728c8ecea8b4247a8f76b
From a weekly stand point here we were attempting to make a new supply up until Thursday when we rallied. However, the two day pump has put us once again with no new supply and with a weekly DMI that is overbought and with a weekly chart in extreme bull momentum.
With a closure over 427.35 weekly supply we honestly have a huge gap to our next major level which is 453.23.
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/tif0ojxc3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=17dd9c0091d1feea3c6b00350cd0c25eed26ba4e
I really zoomed out here on the daily so you can see exactly where some of these trend lines are at… we have officially broken upwards out of the red rising wedge that we have been trading in since the end of February… this now becomes a bull channel which is represented by the blue line… we are also in a shorter term black bull channel that we have been in since May 23rd.
With a SPY daily closure at 427.92 this is the highest level that we have closed at since August 16th which was 429.7 and also was the top of the august rally and led us to our 52 week low sell off…
SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/13on0lfd3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a47a7195597cfddc44718205a6f5acf9fae2e283
On the weekly we have officially closed our highest WEEKLY candle since the week of April 11th… not only that but we did close over the August peaks high and we now are in this 427.3 to 453.3 trading channel (orange).
The weekly has closed over the weekly 8ema for 10 times in a row… that has not happened since August to September of 2021…
With a breakout through the black and orange resistance lines… our next target is either the blue bull channel which gives us resistance at 439.4 next week or the red/ blue rising wedge at 435.23.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 Support- 427.3 -> 421.9 -> 418.5 Resistance- 431.7 -> 436.9
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/t2crz1xd3o3b1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7228ec3bf7d248ed8478699ed7b73f9b476504d
Futures daily also has no change here… we are now targeting our next supply at 4311… DMI also now in a half wave down which means we are waving up bullishly..
FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/1b7ssgce3o3b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a82845fe05f99b922d9596320ea11da8897824d
On the weekly timeframe here we have now bounced off 4130 demand (after establishing it) and have pushed through 4193 and 4384 supplies… this means our next upside target is 4540… Weekly remains in a bullish DMI wave up and bullish extreme momentum… at this point it is absolutely silly to short this.
FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/k0ehh9re3o3b1.png?width=889&format=png&auto=webp&s=6537883d2787c4b09386ec4232f480d86a2942a9
Since I showed such a far out chart on SPY I will show more zoomed in here on futes… we have broken through the red rising wedge which now makes this the red/ blue bull channel. We are also in a almost month long black bull channel.
The resistance of this channel is 4357 and support is 4203 for Monday.
FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/p4kz5i5f3o3b1.png?width=797&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d4315b657335bbfe92902cb8c042081cf398c2a
On the weekly timeframe here we have broken through the shorter term black and red rising wedges… which pretty much solidifies us in this blue bull channel since early march. Channel resistance is 4420 and support is 4168.
Futures also is notching out just barely its highest close since April 2022. We are also coming in hot on these 4300 CC of the JPM collar and in two weeks will be at the 11th week post collar roll…
With this closure over 4280 we officially are in the 4280 to 4540.
FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Demand- 4130 Support- 4280 -> 4238 -> 4215 Resistance- 4238 -> 4392
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/x65gbxjf3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=49e7c3c8230fd62ffdc669216aa43c742d405639
Interestingly enough here honestly QQQ daily looks very weak… weak enough that if you had the grit one could actually short QQQ over the weekend… however, we are in daily and weekly extreme bull momentum so you are severely fighting the trend which is why I do not recommend it…
We are now sitting between 352.8 and 357.09 supplies… This doji candle could lead to a slight pullback and retrace to put in a new supply at 354.64 on Monday… support would be 347.93 if we did that… the DMI is still waving down and on Monday should complete that wave down…
To the upside our target remains 357.09 and 361.7
QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/zg7mckyf3o3b1.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1a20b943c8f12a213f8b858399979109c1c4b25
QQQ weekly is absolutely begging for a pullback with a weekly DMI and supply/ demand indicator about as overbought as it possibly can be… This candle could as a weekly hanging man lead to a retrace next week… If we did that we would definitely add a new supply at 354.85. Our target for a bounce would be the weekly 8ema… This also is QQQs highest weekly close since the week of April 4th 2022.
If we continue this upside run next week we have a supply at 361.85 to watch and then from there we have a pretty big resistance level at 382.9-384.54 to keep an eye on.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 382.9 -> 384.54
VIX
​
https://preview.redd.it/lesidaeg3o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0cda1cf78982e1d4351b053d635830bb87afd323
Yesterday I mentioned there was a high probability that we would get the VIX into the 14s… now I did not expect it to go as low as it did but absolutely incredible drop on the VIX… Here is some fun facts about just how low the VIX is right now…
Today- LOD 14.42, Close 14.6 October 21st 2021- LOD 14.92, Close 15 June 29th 2021- LOD 14.1, Close 16.03 July 2nd 2021- LOD 14.25, Close 15.08 February 19th 2020- LOD 14.21, Close 14.38
This is the 3rd lowest level the VIX has hitting since Pre-COVID… this also is the lowest level that the VIX has closed at since Pre-COVID…
At these levels… the VIX is saying “we are at pre-covid fear in the markets and we are at pre-covid bull market levels.”
Just for correlation here… SPY closed at 338.34 on Feb 19th, 433.72 on July 2nd, 427.7 on June 29th and 453.59 on October 21st… On average that means of the 4 lowest VIX readings in the last almost 2.5 years… SPY has an average closing price of 413.33… however, as you can see in July and June SPY was at the 427.7 to 433.72 level which is nearly perfect correlation to where we closed today…
WEEKLY TRADING LOG
​
https://preview.redd.it/5x8ipiwg3o3b1.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d7574dd033082db63b2929f4520614d60c331f8
Now today up until 130pm felt like an absolutely massive win mentally for me… I recognized the market and the trend… I recognized that the “perfect put opportunity” was actually the call entry in disguise… and I did really really good capitalizing on that and was up quite a bit… however, then came the 130 timeframe…
It all went downhill getting stopped out attempting to play the support bounce with a call… and then from there I lost on two puts in a row on what looked like the worlds greatest put opportunities… the one I got absolutely massively stop loss hunted on and the other I got wrecked on…
Honestly bless up for Mondays, Tuesday and Wednesdays in the market because I will fully admit without shame that Thursday and Fridays have been incredibly difficult for me to trade lately. Honestly from someone who is data driven and highly technical based in what I do… it appears that Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday has been extremely technical based and flows as one would expect both up and down.. however, we get to Thursday and Fridays and its like the market just throws everything out the window and does whatever it wants… highly frustrating… looking forward to the weekend to mentally reset and tackle this market again Monday!

I said this a few weeks ago and it remains true today… “It is far too early to short this market, but at this point it feels far too late to go long on this market too…” What does that mean? IT means while yes I do think at this rate the VIX could see 12-13 and SPY could see 430-440… at this point counting on this rally to continue feels like pure FOMO, however, counting on this rally to come to a dramatic end feels like straight YOLO…
Another thing here is that while I do think the upside is the ease of momentum right now… the odds we wake up to a bank collapsing or some other black swan event seemingly is increasing as time goes on… this honestly is the worst place the markets could be right now…
The question I hate to be asking myself once again is “What is going to stop this rally?” I feel like for months now we get to these “ideal scenarios” that will finally put the market in its place and take it down etc. etc. and then the market just barely makes it by everytime… The way this thing is shaping up is that this truly is going to be a “this time is different” market recovery from bear market to bull market… OR we are just setting ourselves up for one of the biggest and most unexpected crashes this market has seen…
To Pause or Not to Pause
​
https://preview.redd.it/6cwplluz2o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2903473dfbbf37564de6a6fa28089f836ff491dd
What is the one thing the fed wants but wont directly say they want? That would be higher unemployment rate… this mornings 3.7% UE is the highest reading since December 2022. However, since March 2022 (over a year now) we have NOT gotten a single UE reading over 3.7%.... it seems that the UE hits that level (4 times now over the last 1+ year) and then immediately retraces…
With the highest UE you would have expected the odds of a pause in June to nearly hit 80-90%... however, we are actually seeing a slight pullback here on the odds and now are looking only at a 70.1% chance of a pause in June…
However, of course market is rallying like a pause and rate cuts have already happened.
Is TECH Topping out?
​
https://preview.redd.it/hvfa07g03o3b1.png?width=963&format=png&auto=webp&s=f31f34d7478f9021a587d2f1bf8e9fa29c38ae66
In the screenshot above you will see the breadth of S&P500, NASDAQ and NYSE… what does this show? Well in simple terms this shows the buying/ selling pressure of the market… 0 is neutral… what is very interesting to me here is that this is now the second day in a row that the NASD has lagged SPY and NYSE in the buying pressure… what does that mean? Well it means that for the last two days this rally was not led by TECH like previously…
This is very evident by the heatchart here (taken near EOD)… what does it show? IT shows outside of communication services (which BTW took a big hit due to the amazon news as a whole) that TECH was the WEAKEST member today… this is a big deal… now there are two possibilities here… Market is rotating out of tech and into more small/ mid caps and going risk on because they truly believe the upside is the only way…. However, on the hand this could show that big money finally is slowing down here… I wish I had a way to show you guys for sure but the data im seeing is that the last few days has been heavily retail driven and not big money driven…
JPM COLLAR
​
https://preview.redd.it/pveq6q713o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=108d9c59ba3adb750554d72f20498326a62a91fd
Almost exactly two months ago we were post JPM collar roll and I mentioned the history of Futes hitting the sold call level of the collar (or within at least 100 pts of it)… very rarely do we completely pass it but it is possible… my timing assumed we would hit it the 7th week of the trend but it would appear that we are doing it at week 9…
Now the true question is…. Will this pullback like it historically has after reaching the sold call level of the collar leading into the rotation of the collar (June 30th)?
UNTRADABLE
​
https://preview.redd.it/4332ejn13o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c94e8673c6bb9f0eddc96d56c646cff32158734
I very rarely show a 15min intraday chart nor do I include it here but I think its worth it today… why? Well if you look at this chart today I would say that from 1030 until 1115am that was the ONLY time that SPY was easily tradeable today… the opening hour was extremely volatile and unforgiven… I attempted numerous times to catch plays on the way up and down and was not able to get in because SPX premiums were moving $2 in one second… just incredible movement…
If you trusted the extreme momentum of 1030 to 1115am you made some money… From there honestly I can whole heartedly say that from 1115am until EOD it was nothing but bull and bear traps… I haven’t seen so many bear traps in one day… I have never ever seen so many technicals are one time pointing to a put play only for the market to continue to push higher… just absolutely incredible movement on the markets today… This was a clear trend day as evidence by not touching or closing under 20ema all day besides one fast wick during opening hour… however, this was one of the choppiest extreme momentum days ive seen in a while…
Ive said it before 2022 was hard mode in the markets… 2023 is turning into expert mode in the markets.
SPY DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/c8o10l223o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=883986858a1794579318880fc4cee15b04c9aadf
From the daily supply and demand here we did not do anything new… we did attempt to touch 429.68 supply and id fall just short of it… this gap up has us sitting between 422.04 and 429.68 supply.
We did however get a fake wave down (half wave) on the DMI and now the DMI is waving bullishly.
SPY WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/s4ikk4i23o3b1.png?width=970&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d830943903ad49868c66ae3c591b6105feffe6c
From a weekly stand point here we were attempting to make a new supply up until Thursday when we rallied. However, the two day pump has put us once again with no new supply and with a weekly DMI that is overbought and with a weekly chart in extreme bull momentum.
With a closure over 427.35 weekly supply we honestly have a huge gap to our next major level which is 453.23.
SPY DAILY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/tlifzez23o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=9fbf11068f81427c78367688bc8624b6bc4d98f7
I really zoomed out here on the daily so you can see exactly where some of these trend lines are at… we have officially broken upwards out of the red rising wedge that we have been trading in since the end of February… this now becomes a bull channel which is represented by the blue line… we are also in a shorter term black bull channel that we have been in since May 23rd.
With a SPY daily closure at 427.92 this is the highest level that we have closed at since August 16th which was 429.7 and also was the top of the august rally and led us to our 52 week low sell off…
SPY WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/owuovbl33o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfaf2d8c9cad92e0e062f2f84c23958a243194d9
On the weekly we have officially closed our highest WEEKLY candle since the week of April 11th… not only that but we did close over the August peaks high and we now are in this 427.3 to 453.3 trading channel (orange).
The weekly has closed over the weekly 8ema for 10 times in a row… that has not happened since August to September of 2021…
With a breakout through the black and orange resistance lines… our next target is either the blue bull channel which gives us resistance at 439.4 next week or the red/ blue rising wedge at 435.23.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 416.08 -> 427.35 -> 453.23 Demand- 411.57 Support- 427.3 -> 421.9 -> 418.5 Resistance- 431.7 -> 436.9
FUTURES DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/bvu20a543o3b1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=051cc7cfcb2161ba5fad8c23b166659fadc99d6b
Futures daily also has no change here… we are now targeting our next supply at 4311… DMI also now in a half wave down which means we are waving up bullishly..
FUTURES WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/6v7q7xh43o3b1.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=7368bf9995562a5899793370e449bc689af65a41
On the weekly timeframe here we have now bounced off 4130 demand (after establishing it) and have pushed through 4193 and 4384 supplies… this means our next upside target is 4540… Weekly remains in a bullish DMI wave up and bullish extreme momentum… at this point it is absolutely silly to short this.
FUTURES DAILY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/ots67q553o3b1.png?width=889&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc4e55cf003a913681d52fdd8aec78a2118a6756
Since I showed such a far out chart on SPY I will show more zoomed in here on futes… we have broken through the red rising wedge which now makes this the red/ blue bull channel. We are also in a almost month long black bull channel.
The resistance of this channel is 4357 and support is 4203 for Monday.
FUTURES WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
​
https://preview.redd.it/p34unci53o3b1.png?width=797&format=png&auto=webp&s=66139179523cb15cb298a09e807b098245738bf9
On the weekly timeframe here we have broken through the shorter term black and red rising wedges… which pretty much solidifies us in this blue bull channel since early march. Channel resistance is 4420 and support is 4168.
Futures also is notching out just barely its highest close since April 2022. We are also coming in hot on these 4300 CC of the JPM collar and in two weeks will be at the 11th week post collar roll…
With this closure over 4280 we officially are in the 4280 to 4540.
FUTURES WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 4193 -> 4284 -> 4540 Demand- 4130 Support- 4280 -> 4238 -> 4215 Resistance- 4238 -> 4392
QQQ DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/2igz50z53o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=a26713d80adb07c3967e7b3c4c433bcefd6ad6a9
Interestingly enough here honestly QQQ daily looks very weak… weak enough that if you had the grit one could actually short QQQ over the weekend… however, we are in daily and weekly extreme bull momentum so you are severely fighting the trend which is why I do not recommend it…
We are now sitting between 352.8 and 357.09 supplies… This doji candle could lead to a slight pullback and retrace to put in a new supply at 354.64 on Monday… support would be 347.93 if we did that… the DMI is still waving down and on Monday should complete that wave down…
To the upside our target remains 357.09 and 361.7
QQQ WEEKLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
​
https://preview.redd.it/buop4xl63o3b1.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=91f710897490019b0f0fcb18d7c3ac92445f27f7
QQQ weekly is absolutely begging for a pullback with a weekly DMI and supply/ demand indicator about as overbought as it possibly can be… This candle could as a weekly hanging man lead to a retrace next week… If we did that we would definitely add a new supply at 354.85. Our target for a bounce would be the weekly 8ema… This also is QQQs highest weekly close since the week of April 4th 2022.
If we continue this upside run next week we have a supply at 361.85 to watch and then from there we have a pretty big resistance level at 382.9-384.54 to keep an eye on.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS Supply- 330.67 -> 361.85 Demand- 322.47 -> 382.9 -> 384.54
VIX
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https://preview.redd.it/67py8u473o3b1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdcb1f48fad49637480e121bb24a0833f2cbfd3f
Yesterday I mentioned there was a high probability that we would get the VIX into the 14s… now I did not expect it to go as low as it did but absolutely incredible drop on the VIX… Here is some fun facts about just how low the VIX is right now…
Today- LOD 14.42, Close 14.6 October 21st 2021- LOD 14.92, Close 15 June 29th 2021- LOD 14.1, Close 16.03 July 2nd 2021- LOD 14.25, Close 15.08 February 19th 2020- LOD 14.21, Close 14.38
This is the 3rd lowest level the VIX has hitting since Pre-COVID… this also is the lowest level that the VIX has closed at since Pre-COVID…
At these levels… the VIX is saying “we are at pre-covid fear in the markets and we are at pre-covid bull market levels.”
Just for correlation here… SPY closed at 338.34 on Feb 19th, 433.72 on July 2nd, 427.7 on June 29th and 453.59 on October 21st… On average that means of the 4 lowest VIX readings in the last almost 2.5 years… SPY has an average closing price of 413.33… however, as you can see in July and June SPY was at the 427.7 to 433.72 level which is nearly perfect correlation to where we closed today…
WEEKLY TRADING LOG
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Now today up until 130pm felt like an absolutely massive win mentally for me… I recognized the market and the trend… I recognized that the “perfect put opportunity” was actually the call entry in disguise… and I did really really good capitalizing on that and was up quite a bit… however, then came the 130 timeframe…
It all went downhill getting stopped out attempting to play the support bounce with a call… and then from there I lost on two puts in a row on what looked like the worlds greatest put opportunities… the one I got absolutely massively stop loss hunted on and the other I got wrecked on…
Honestly bless up for Mondays, Tuesday and Wednesdays in the market because I will fully admit without shame that Thursday and Fridays have been incredibly difficult for me to trade lately. Honestly from someone who is data driven and highly technical based in what I do… it appears that Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday has been extremely technical based and flows as one would expect both up and down.. however, we get to Thursday and Fridays and its like the market just throws everything out the window and does whatever it wants… highly frustrating… looking forward to the weekend to mentally reset and tackle this market again Monday!

I like to think of myself as an endurance athlete. I’ve done a few Ironmans (140.6 & 70.3), several ultras (50k-100 miles) and I even ran 200 miles as a fundraiser. Next week I’m going to be hiking 100 miles with some other veterans to raise money for PTSD awareness with an Team Semper Fi. I guess you can say I really dig spending time in my personal pain cave. A few months ago got a C2 and it’s been a journey! I really enjoy rowing and it’s a killer workout. Up until a few days ago my longest row was like 45 minutes or so. On Tuesday (5/30) i set my rower up on the driveway and I attempted and completed my first half marathon row! It was definitely a challenge and after the first 30 min I got into a good groove mentally. My initial thought was like woah I have a lot to do and a long way to go but once I settled into a rhythm it was really enjoyable. After the initial 30 min I began to chunk it into small portions of time. My next goal was at the 45 min mark. I just kept telling myself I’m 50% done and then 15 min later I was an hour deep. At the hour mark I was like now I’m 66% done and I only have 30 min to go! The last 30 min was solid and every min that went passed I was like oh just one less to go! My final 2500 meters were kinda a struggle, mentally and physically. I felt soooo close yet so far at the same time. I was chunking into small distances of 500 meters and then when I was about 1500 left I was chunking into small 100 meter clips. Eventually it came to an end and I was done! During this row I wore my ultimate direction hydration vest with a 3L water bladder. I also had a water bottle with GU mix and tons of snacks. I had candied ginger, peanut butter and raisins on crackers, and a few dates. I would eat every 10 minutes and it really helped with the boredom and gave me something to look forward to. I also set up a speaker and listened to Killing Kryptonite: Destroy What Steals Your Strength by John Bevere. He’s an amazing Christian author with an amazing ministry. I would recommend checking out anything he has written! After my row I got up and my legs felt like jello and my core was on fire!! The the next two days my abs were so sore. It was a great feeling and it was 100% Type II Fun!! I feel like a did a good job and averaged 2:10/500m and I’m excited to eventually do a 25k row and on to a full marathon row. I love the C2 and it’s been a great addition to my ultrarunning and triathlon training. Thanks for reading and have a great day!! God Bless!!!