Hiking near corpus christi
23M Looking for foreign romance [relationship]
2023.06.03 06:38 MaleficentBobcat9059 23M Looking for foreign romance [relationship]
Hello, I’ve always had a bit of a fixation. I love foreign women, women from places like North Africa, Japan, Russia, Australia. Not sure why, I just love hearing about different cultures and ways of life, and I have found myself nearly exclusively romantically attracted to foreign women. I’m an American myself. About me, I’m tall, very much an academic at heart. I’m in great shape, I walk about four kilometers a day, I have broad shoulders, and muscular thighs. I’m looking for something long term, leading to a deep connection and children. I am happy to work and help provide financially, and I love taking care of children, I have a 3 year old cousin I adore. I play pc games, I read a lot, mostly nonfiction, and I am obsessed with American football. I would describe myself as a rational, considerate, and compassionate person. What I would like from you is kindness, intelligence, and curiosity. I like different qualities in different people so I am very flexible in regards to the traits I admire. I would prefer you to be at least somewhat physically fit, I enjoy hiking and going to museums and do active things and would enjoy your company doing that. I’m happy to answer any questions if needed
submitted by MaleficentBobcat9059 to MeetPeople [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 05:42 otiac1 The month of June is dedicated to The Sacred Heart of Jesus.
The month of June falls within the liturgical season of Ordinary Time, which is represented by the liturgical color green. This symbol of hope is the color of the sprouting seed and arouses in the faithful the hope of reaping the eternal harvest of heaven, especially the hope of a glorious resurrection. It is used in the offices and Masses of Ordinary Time.
The Holy Father's Intentions for the Month of June 2023
For the abolition of torture: We pray that the international community may commit in a concrete way to ensuring the abolition of torture and guarantee support to victims and their families. (See also Apostleship of Prayer)
Feasts for June 2023 1. Justin, Memorial
The Gospel readings for June are from St. Matthew. All Sunday readings are from Year A, and weekday readings are Cycle I.
June 4 Trinity Sunday
God sent his Son that the world might be saved through him. June 11th Corpus Christi
My flesh is true food, and my blood is true drink. June 18th Eleventh Sunday in Ordinary Time
Jesus summoned his twelve disciples and sent them out. June 25th Twelfth Sunday in Ordinary Time
Do not be afraid of those who kill the body. Highlights of the Month
As we begin to feel the warmth of summer, we can reflect that we celebrate the feasts of Trinity Sunday (June 4), Corpus Christi (June 11), the Sacred Heart of Jesus (June 16) and the Immaculate Heart of Mary (June 17). God is Love and the Sacred Heart of Jesus — present on earth in the Blessed Sacrament — is the human manifestation of God's Love for men. Appropriately June is considered the month for weddings where human hearts join and cooperate with the Creator in bringing forth new life. The family they create is a human reflection of the Blessed Trinity. The saints that we will focus on this month are:
St. Justin (June 1),
Sts. Marcellinus and Peter (June 2),
St. Charles Lwanga & Companions (June 3),
St. Boniface (June 5),
St. Norbert (June 6),
St. Ephrem (June 9),
St. Anthony of Padua (June 13),
St. Romuald (June 19),
St. Aloysius Gonzaga (June 21),
Sts. John Fisher and Thomas More (June 22),
St. Paulinus (June 22),
the Nativity of St. John the Baptist (June 24),
St. Josemaría Escrivá (June 26),
St. Cyril of Alexandria (June 27),
St. Irenaeus (June 28),
the Solemnity of Sts. Peter and Paul (June 29)
and the First Martyrs of the Church of Rome (June 30).
The feast of St. Barnabas (June 11) is superseded by the Sunday liturgy.
A Time of Love
Following Pentecost, the Church begins her slow descent from the great peaks of the Easter Season to the verdant pastures of Ordinary Time, the longest of the liturgical seasons. She pauses briefly, to praise the Holy Trinity — Creator, Redeemer, and Sanctifier; and then the Sacrament of the Body and Blood of Christ, Corpus Christi. Like the lush June growth all around us, the green of the liturgical season points to the new life won for us by the Redemption of Jesus Christ, the new life of Charity. For Our Lord came to cast the fire of His love on the earth, and to that end, sent His Holy Spirit at Pentecost in the form of tongues of fire.
Therefore, the close of the Easter season marks not the cessation but rather the beginning of Ordinary Time is the commencement of the Church’s activity. Ordinary Time is the hour to “go out to all the world and tell the good news.” The feasts of June highlight this expansion of the Church. At least ten times, the Church vests in the red of the martyrs whose blood is the very seed of her growth. She also celebrates the feasts of the Apostles Peter and Paul, and the birth of St. John the Baptist, proto-disciple and prophet.
We, too, are called to be witnesses like the apostles and martyrs. May the Heart of Jesus inflame our hearts so that we may be worthy of our Baptismal call to holiness. Immaculate Heart of Mary, pray for us.
This item 12552 digitally provided courtesy of CatholicCulture.org
submitted by otiac1 to CatholicGamers [link] [comments]
The Holy Father's Intentions for the Month of June 2023
For the abolition of torture: We pray that the international community may commit in a concrete way to ensuring the abolition of torture and guarantee support to victims and their families. (See also Apostleship of Prayer)
Feasts for June 2023 1. Justin, Memorial
- Marcellinus & Peter; Ember Friday, Opt. Mem.
- Charles Lwanga & Companions, Memorial
- TRINITY SUNDAY, Solemnity
- Boniface, Memorial
- Norbert, Opt. Mem.
- Ephrem, Opt. Mem.
- CORPUS CHRISTI, Solemnity
- Anthony of Padua, Memorial
- SACRED HEART OF JESUS, Solemnity
- Immaculate Heart of Mary, Memorial
- ELEVENTH SUNDAY IN ORDINARY TIME, Sunday
- Romuald, Opt. Mem.
- Aloysius Gonzaga, Memorial
- Paulinus of Nola; John Fisher & Thomas More, Opt. Mem.
- NATIVITY OF ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST, Solemnity
- TWELFTH SUNDAY IN ORDINARY TIME, Sunday
- Josemaría Escrivá, Opt. Mem.
- Cyril of Alexandria, Opt. Mem.
- Irenaeus, Memorial
- STS PETER & PAUL, Solemnity
- First Martyrs of the Holy Roman Church, Opt. Mem.
The Gospel readings for June are from St. Matthew. All Sunday readings are from Year A, and weekday readings are Cycle I.
June 4 Trinity Sunday
God sent his Son that the world might be saved through him. June 11th Corpus Christi
My flesh is true food, and my blood is true drink. June 18th Eleventh Sunday in Ordinary Time
Jesus summoned his twelve disciples and sent them out. June 25th Twelfth Sunday in Ordinary Time
Do not be afraid of those who kill the body. Highlights of the Month
As we begin to feel the warmth of summer, we can reflect that we celebrate the feasts of Trinity Sunday (June 4), Corpus Christi (June 11), the Sacred Heart of Jesus (June 16) and the Immaculate Heart of Mary (June 17). God is Love and the Sacred Heart of Jesus — present on earth in the Blessed Sacrament — is the human manifestation of God's Love for men. Appropriately June is considered the month for weddings where human hearts join and cooperate with the Creator in bringing forth new life. The family they create is a human reflection of the Blessed Trinity. The saints that we will focus on this month are:
St. Justin (June 1),
Sts. Marcellinus and Peter (June 2),
St. Charles Lwanga & Companions (June 3),
St. Boniface (June 5),
St. Norbert (June 6),
St. Ephrem (June 9),
St. Anthony of Padua (June 13),
St. Romuald (June 19),
St. Aloysius Gonzaga (June 21),
Sts. John Fisher and Thomas More (June 22),
St. Paulinus (June 22),
the Nativity of St. John the Baptist (June 24),
St. Josemaría Escrivá (June 26),
St. Cyril of Alexandria (June 27),
St. Irenaeus (June 28),
the Solemnity of Sts. Peter and Paul (June 29)
and the First Martyrs of the Church of Rome (June 30).
The feast of St. Barnabas (June 11) is superseded by the Sunday liturgy.
A Time of Love
Following Pentecost, the Church begins her slow descent from the great peaks of the Easter Season to the verdant pastures of Ordinary Time, the longest of the liturgical seasons. She pauses briefly, to praise the Holy Trinity — Creator, Redeemer, and Sanctifier; and then the Sacrament of the Body and Blood of Christ, Corpus Christi. Like the lush June growth all around us, the green of the liturgical season points to the new life won for us by the Redemption of Jesus Christ, the new life of Charity. For Our Lord came to cast the fire of His love on the earth, and to that end, sent His Holy Spirit at Pentecost in the form of tongues of fire.
Therefore, the close of the Easter season marks not the cessation but rather the beginning of Ordinary Time is the commencement of the Church’s activity. Ordinary Time is the hour to “go out to all the world and tell the good news.” The feasts of June highlight this expansion of the Church. At least ten times, the Church vests in the red of the martyrs whose blood is the very seed of her growth. She also celebrates the feasts of the Apostles Peter and Paul, and the birth of St. John the Baptist, proto-disciple and prophet.
We, too, are called to be witnesses like the apostles and martyrs. May the Heart of Jesus inflame our hearts so that we may be worthy of our Baptismal call to holiness. Immaculate Heart of Mary, pray for us.
This item 12552 digitally provided courtesy of CatholicCulture.org
2023.06.03 05:31 catchemchris Girl won’t give her number?
Yoo, so odd situation here. This girl i’m talking to (see at the gym everyday) we have decent connection and I need some advice on something. I’m pretty good with pickup and detecting energy reciprocation, so this is stumping me.
We went on a date last week for coffee, everything was good. This week at the gym, talked a few times and told her today if she wanted to come with me Sunday to hike on a trail near where we live, she could come. She agreed, said she couldn’t do Saturday but Sunday she was free. (her suggestion). I said ight bet.
So, I dm’d her about an hour ago and was like “hey can i grab ur number so in case you need help finding the trail location i can call”. she responded, “no sir, dms work better for me right now”.
i’m like bro… are u serious? i don’t think it’s that deep. i get maybe still being cautious but if you aren’t interested why bother suggesting another time slot for sunday? any insight here is appreciated
submitted by catchemchris to dating [link] [comments]
We went on a date last week for coffee, everything was good. This week at the gym, talked a few times and told her today if she wanted to come with me Sunday to hike on a trail near where we live, she could come. She agreed, said she couldn’t do Saturday but Sunday she was free. (her suggestion). I said ight bet.
So, I dm’d her about an hour ago and was like “hey can i grab ur number so in case you need help finding the trail location i can call”. she responded, “no sir, dms work better for me right now”.
i’m like bro… are u serious? i don’t think it’s that deep. i get maybe still being cautious but if you aren’t interested why bother suggesting another time slot for sunday? any insight here is appreciated
2023.06.03 05:02 Drakolf The Cursed Sword:
It started on a dare.
I mean, who doesn't do something reckless or stupid at least once in their life? It wasn't even that dangerous, just an old ruin we found while backpacking out in the European countryside.
It wasn't on any maps, hell, any roads that led to it had long since faded, we simply just hiked into the wilderness and pitched a tent, not even thinking about the potential dangers. It was quiet, away from civilization, albeit we could still see cities in the distance.
Jason had gone to take a piss, but when he came back, he said, "Guys, you've got to check this out."
It was an old ruined castle of some kind, and being the brave idiots we were, we marched right up to it and didn't even think of the possibility of squatters or it being a place where drug deals went down. It felt desolate, I guess that's why we never really cared.
Now, I'll admit, the place was cool and had most certainly stood the test of time in spite of being overrun by vegetation.
Seeing the sword was eerie. It was just... laying there, on an old stone table. There were thick, rusted chains crossing over the door, with an old sign in very old English that basically said, 'Cursed'.
"Dare you to touch it." Jason said.
I rolled my eyes, approached the damn thing, and since the chains just kind of crumbled in my hand, I reached over and picked it up.
I felt a static charge as I lifted it, when I pulled it out of its surprisingly pristine sheathe, the blade very much still polished, I simply said, "Mine now."
Of course, I was being facetious, I let them hold it, let them swing it around, but I began to feel... I don't know, upset? When I took the sword back, I just... I felt possessive about it and just told them, "Hey, since I was the one who braved the curse, I should keep it, alright?"
They looked like they were going to argue, but to my surprise, they both said, "Yeah, keep it." I didn't really think much of the confusion on their faces, all I cared about was that the sword was mine. So I attached it to my belt, and we headed out.
I first noticed something was a little odd when I began slowing down. I didn't feel fatigued, I just felt like I was moving slower. I had the guys wait for a bit while I limbered up. Yeah, my movements felt slower, like I was straining against something heavy. I rubbed my hands together, but... it felt weird. I pinched my fingers, and my skin was hard. Not only that, but my fingerprints were gone.
"Hey, guys?" I said. My face felt stiff, talking was harder than it should have been. "Something weird's happening."
They laughed about me trying to pull something on them, but when I approached and showed them, they became concerned.
"Your arms are smooth." John remarked. "Dieter, what the shit is that?"
I was confused. "My name isn't Dieter, it's..." I was drawing a blank, all I could come up with was the name Dieter.
"Yeah, what the fuck?" Jason asked. "I could have sworn you had a different name."
"Look, let's just keep going." John said. "We've got to be near civilization."
We kept going, but they kept taking furtive glances at me, clearly growing more and more worried as the wilderness just kept going.
I tripped and fell, hitting the ground harder than I was used to. They struggled to get me to stand up. "Dieter, what the shit?" John asked as he pulled away from me. He pointed at my arm, and when I looked, the strange smoothness had begun to break up into weird segments around my fingers. I tried to answer, but I couldn't open my mouth. I touched my face, it, too, was taking on a weird shape, and my lips felt like they were fused together.
We kept moving, but even though I didn't feel tired, I felt sluggish. We crested over a hill, and we stopped dead in our tracks.
He had been walking south for miles at this point, and we had somehow looped around to the castle from earlier.
We immediately ran for it, because at this point, the sword was clearly fucking cursed. I put it back on the pedestal, and we fucked right off.
The sound of metal clanking alerted us to a problem. When I looked down, my shoes were gone, replaced by sabatons. And worse, the sword was tied to my belt. Even then, my clothing was changing, I was wearing something I was able to identify as a gambeson, even though moments ago, I had never known about them, and even more alarmingly, my hands and arms were turning to metal, taking on the shape of armor.
"Dieter..." Jason started.
I looked at them, trying to remember when I met them, why I knew their names. My hand found my sword's hilt and I drew it. "Kneel." I said.
"What?" Jason asked.
"You heard me. Kneel."
They both looked at one another before kneeling. I rested my sword against their shoulders, and said, "By my authority, I knight you."
The horror on their faces was short lived, in time, they stood as proudly as I did, ready to defend this castle against anyone who sought its destruction.
submitted by Drakolf to DrakolfsWritings [link] [comments]
I mean, who doesn't do something reckless or stupid at least once in their life? It wasn't even that dangerous, just an old ruin we found while backpacking out in the European countryside.
It wasn't on any maps, hell, any roads that led to it had long since faded, we simply just hiked into the wilderness and pitched a tent, not even thinking about the potential dangers. It was quiet, away from civilization, albeit we could still see cities in the distance.
Jason had gone to take a piss, but when he came back, he said, "Guys, you've got to check this out."
It was an old ruined castle of some kind, and being the brave idiots we were, we marched right up to it and didn't even think of the possibility of squatters or it being a place where drug deals went down. It felt desolate, I guess that's why we never really cared.
Now, I'll admit, the place was cool and had most certainly stood the test of time in spite of being overrun by vegetation.
Seeing the sword was eerie. It was just... laying there, on an old stone table. There were thick, rusted chains crossing over the door, with an old sign in very old English that basically said, 'Cursed'.
"Dare you to touch it." Jason said.
I rolled my eyes, approached the damn thing, and since the chains just kind of crumbled in my hand, I reached over and picked it up.
I felt a static charge as I lifted it, when I pulled it out of its surprisingly pristine sheathe, the blade very much still polished, I simply said, "Mine now."
Of course, I was being facetious, I let them hold it, let them swing it around, but I began to feel... I don't know, upset? When I took the sword back, I just... I felt possessive about it and just told them, "Hey, since I was the one who braved the curse, I should keep it, alright?"
They looked like they were going to argue, but to my surprise, they both said, "Yeah, keep it." I didn't really think much of the confusion on their faces, all I cared about was that the sword was mine. So I attached it to my belt, and we headed out.
I first noticed something was a little odd when I began slowing down. I didn't feel fatigued, I just felt like I was moving slower. I had the guys wait for a bit while I limbered up. Yeah, my movements felt slower, like I was straining against something heavy. I rubbed my hands together, but... it felt weird. I pinched my fingers, and my skin was hard. Not only that, but my fingerprints were gone.
"Hey, guys?" I said. My face felt stiff, talking was harder than it should have been. "Something weird's happening."
They laughed about me trying to pull something on them, but when I approached and showed them, they became concerned.
"Your arms are smooth." John remarked. "Dieter, what the shit is that?"
I was confused. "My name isn't Dieter, it's..." I was drawing a blank, all I could come up with was the name Dieter.
"Yeah, what the fuck?" Jason asked. "I could have sworn you had a different name."
"Look, let's just keep going." John said. "We've got to be near civilization."
We kept going, but they kept taking furtive glances at me, clearly growing more and more worried as the wilderness just kept going.
I tripped and fell, hitting the ground harder than I was used to. They struggled to get me to stand up. "Dieter, what the shit?" John asked as he pulled away from me. He pointed at my arm, and when I looked, the strange smoothness had begun to break up into weird segments around my fingers. I tried to answer, but I couldn't open my mouth. I touched my face, it, too, was taking on a weird shape, and my lips felt like they were fused together.
We kept moving, but even though I didn't feel tired, I felt sluggish. We crested over a hill, and we stopped dead in our tracks.
He had been walking south for miles at this point, and we had somehow looped around to the castle from earlier.
We immediately ran for it, because at this point, the sword was clearly fucking cursed. I put it back on the pedestal, and we fucked right off.
The sound of metal clanking alerted us to a problem. When I looked down, my shoes were gone, replaced by sabatons. And worse, the sword was tied to my belt. Even then, my clothing was changing, I was wearing something I was able to identify as a gambeson, even though moments ago, I had never known about them, and even more alarmingly, my hands and arms were turning to metal, taking on the shape of armor.
"Dieter..." Jason started.
I looked at them, trying to remember when I met them, why I knew their names. My hand found my sword's hilt and I drew it. "Kneel." I said.
"What?" Jason asked.
"You heard me. Kneel."
They both looked at one another before kneeling. I rested my sword against their shoulders, and said, "By my authority, I knight you."
The horror on their faces was short lived, in time, they stood as proudly as I did, ready to defend this castle against anyone who sought its destruction.
2023.06.03 05:00 dme357 Trinity Sunday and Corpus Christi is near. Are there any possible ways we can gain indulgences on these feasts?
As far as I know, on certain feasts, Holy Mother Church gives her faithful children indulgences, most especially on speacial feaste and solemnities. Are there any indulgences I could obtain for these feasts?
Extra Question: I have seen some calendars and saw Corpus Christi at this year's June 8 (Thursday) and then many calendars have it in June 11 (Sunday). Why is this so?
submitted by dme357 to Catholicism [link] [comments]
Extra Question: I have seen some calendars and saw Corpus Christi at this year's June 8 (Thursday) and then many calendars have it in June 11 (Sunday). Why is this so?
2023.06.03 03:54 gamerguy287 Does Bed Bath & Beyond count as a "dead mall" now? (Bed Bath & Beyond in Corpus Christi Texas)
 | submitted by gamerguy287 to deadmalls [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 03:21 Com_Pac Mold confirmed via ERMI
 | Well now all the doctors that told me I need to drink more water, get more sleep and have less stress can take a hike honestly. I was sick for about 3 years(so many nonspecific cumulative issues), near the end I lost my vision for a time and went to the ER 4 time for seizure like episodes. MRI, catscan, blood testing.... no one caught the mold. This mold also showed in the mycotoxin urine test I ran on myself. I post this result here so anyone else can use this as a reference point for their own testing. Also I am more than happy an answer any questions. submitted by Com_Pac to ToxicMoldExposure [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/iqrh7po4gp3b1.png?width=815&format=png&auto=webp&s=62806452505cbe2cb414ee3f822f00500e5bab50 https://preview.redd.it/e1r84qo4gp3b1.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=7352435fa8812bb2bb0581ea804effad1c9d798e https://preview.redd.it/5js4u3s45q3b1.png?width=696&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e750d6977d753066835a2e09916a0888b9d09a0 |
2023.06.03 02:46 MedDN0 31 [M4F] East Coast/USA Let's hold hands as we explore the world
Good evening! I've been looking for that special someone but still no luck. I've met some cool people but eventually the spark dies or things are more platonic. But that doesn't mean she isn't out there somewhere!
Physically:
I am 31, living on the east coast (obviously). I know physical attraction is important - I am 5'7", Southeast Asian, more musculadad bod type physique. I work quite random hours in healthcare but try to make it to the gym at least 2-3 times a week.
About me:
As mentioned above, I work in healthcare in a fairly high stress environment so when I am home I usually just want to laze about to recharge. Despite being an introvert (ISFJ/ISTJ) my work requires a lot of social interactions. I tend to be more of a homebody but do enjoy time out with my partner, less inclined to go to big social gatherings/bars/clubs.
Some of my hobbies include but are not limited to: Trying various restaurants, weight lifting, PC building, video games, walks in nature, occasional hike, and binging shows (anime/TV - definitely recommend TLOU).
Personality wise I am a good listener, considerate, patient, intelligent, open minded.
I enjoy various types of music such as Kpop, RnB, instrumental pieces, Rap/Hiphop, Jpop, etc. Unfortunately, I am not a big fan of country or metal music.
I am open to children, although I think the decision is ultimately up to the woman to decide since she does nearly 100% of the work in childbearing.
Looking for:
I am looking for my future partner, preferably someone between the age of 24-35 (some flexibility on this). Someone who's hand I can hold as we walk through the various food markets of the world. You eating two bites and me having to finish the rest of all the street side skewer we bought after just downing a meal less than 2 hours ago. Trying snacks and drinks from around the world before falling asleep while cuddling. I'm looking forward to traveling to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Iceland to name a few.
While I am not looking for someone with any particular interests or hobbies, but it's important to be passionate about something that you have an interest in or may be pursuing. Sharing some common interests would be nice. Video games are a large part of my life since I was young so it would be nice to share that passion with someone else.
I am looking for someone who is emotionally mature and able to communicate what they feel. I am the type of person who wants to understand your joy, happiness, frustration, anger, disappointment in hopes that I can either recreate it or fix what might be causing it.
Open to a LDR with the right person, but there needs to be plans for relocating sooner rather than later.
Misc:
Thank you for taking the time to read through my rather long post! I hope to hear from you. Feel free to DM me or send a chat. I would prefer to exchange pictures soon after interacting so we can get the physical attraction aspect out of the way and not waste each other's time.
submitted by MedDN0 to r4r [link] [comments]
Physically:
I am 31, living on the east coast (obviously). I know physical attraction is important - I am 5'7", Southeast Asian, more musculadad bod type physique. I work quite random hours in healthcare but try to make it to the gym at least 2-3 times a week.
About me:
As mentioned above, I work in healthcare in a fairly high stress environment so when I am home I usually just want to laze about to recharge. Despite being an introvert (ISFJ/ISTJ) my work requires a lot of social interactions. I tend to be more of a homebody but do enjoy time out with my partner, less inclined to go to big social gatherings/bars/clubs.
Some of my hobbies include but are not limited to: Trying various restaurants, weight lifting, PC building, video games, walks in nature, occasional hike, and binging shows (anime/TV - definitely recommend TLOU).
Personality wise I am a good listener, considerate, patient, intelligent, open minded.
I enjoy various types of music such as Kpop, RnB, instrumental pieces, Rap/Hiphop, Jpop, etc. Unfortunately, I am not a big fan of country or metal music.
I am open to children, although I think the decision is ultimately up to the woman to decide since she does nearly 100% of the work in childbearing.
Looking for:
I am looking for my future partner, preferably someone between the age of 24-35 (some flexibility on this). Someone who's hand I can hold as we walk through the various food markets of the world. You eating two bites and me having to finish the rest of all the street side skewer we bought after just downing a meal less than 2 hours ago. Trying snacks and drinks from around the world before falling asleep while cuddling. I'm looking forward to traveling to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Iceland to name a few.
While I am not looking for someone with any particular interests or hobbies, but it's important to be passionate about something that you have an interest in or may be pursuing. Sharing some common interests would be nice. Video games are a large part of my life since I was young so it would be nice to share that passion with someone else.
I am looking for someone who is emotionally mature and able to communicate what they feel. I am the type of person who wants to understand your joy, happiness, frustration, anger, disappointment in hopes that I can either recreate it or fix what might be causing it.
Open to a LDR with the right person, but there needs to be plans for relocating sooner rather than later.
Misc:
Thank you for taking the time to read through my rather long post! I hope to hear from you. Feel free to DM me or send a chat. I would prefer to exchange pictures soon after interacting so we can get the physical attraction aspect out of the way and not waste each other's time.
2023.06.03 02:38 Blunder_Punch Day tripping in the forrest
 | Went for a trippy hike the other day with 2 of my friends. 4 grams each, and we wondered our hiking trail for hours. Layed around near the creek watching the clouds and enjoyed some intense visuals. Watched a hawk catch a rabbit for lunch, and found a few new spots on our favorite trail. Took this picture on the come down from a perfect day and wanted to share it with you guys. submitted by Blunder_Punch to shrooms [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 02:21 viridarius Epi-andro or ostarine?
Can't cross-post so I'm just reposting this from another sub.
I'm currently taking 800mg of epi-andro to help increase my endurance before doing a 500 mile hike weighed down, but I recently found out it may convert to DHT and am worried about hair-loss.
I've been on it for nearly a month, running low on my first bottle. Endurance, strength, sex dive, and confidence have been up, so far the benefits have been great. I was planning on doing a 12 week cycle, so 1 month pre-hike and then during(should take 1-2 months to complete).
Finding out about DHT has me worried, would I see similar benefits from ostarine if I switched after finishing this bottle? Also thinking of adding Cardarine as well either way. Thoughts?
submitted by viridarius to SARMs [link] [comments]
I'm currently taking 800mg of epi-andro to help increase my endurance before doing a 500 mile hike weighed down, but I recently found out it may convert to DHT and am worried about hair-loss.
I've been on it for nearly a month, running low on my first bottle. Endurance, strength, sex dive, and confidence have been up, so far the benefits have been great. I was planning on doing a 12 week cycle, so 1 month pre-hike and then during(should take 1-2 months to complete).
Finding out about DHT has me worried, would I see similar benefits from ostarine if I switched after finishing this bottle? Also thinking of adding Cardarine as well either way. Thoughts?
2023.06.03 01:57 MaleficentBobcat9059 23 [M4F] CST/Anywhere- Looking for foreign romance
Hello, I’ve always had a bit of a fixation. I love foreign women, women from places like North Africa, Japan, Russia, Australia. Not sure why, I just love hearing about different cultures and ways of life, and I have found myself nearly exclusively romantically attracted to foreign women. I’m an American myself. About me, I’m tall, very much an academic at heart. I’m in great shape, I walk about four kilometers a day, I have broad shoulders, and muscular thighs. I’m looking for something long term, leading to a deep connection and children. I am happy to work and help provide financially, and I love taking care of children, I have a 3 year old cousin I adore. I play pc games, I read a lot, mostly nonfiction, and I am obsessed with American football. I would describe myself as a rational, considerate, and compassionate person. What I would like from you is kindness, intelligence, and curiosity. I like different qualities in different people so I am very flexible in regards to the traits I admire. I would prefer you to be at least somewhat physically fit, I enjoy hiking and going to museums and do active things and would enjoy your company doing that. I’m happy to answer any questions if needed
submitted by MaleficentBobcat9059 to ForeverAloneDating [link] [comments]
2023.06.03 01:53 ryanxmccarthy Recent hike near Lone Pine Lake (Mt. Whitney, California, USA)
 | submitted by ryanxmccarthy to hiking [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 01:49 Willing-Function-385 4 mile open!
 | submitted by Willing-Function-385 to Yosemite [link] [comments] |
2023.06.03 01:19 localfyi Local Events in The Triangle this Weekend!
Saturday:
Durham Craft Market - Saturday 08:00 AM @ Durham Central Park - Durham
The Raleigh Market - For the thrill of the hunt! - Saturday 09:00 AM @ N. C. State Fairgrounds - Raleigh
Shop & Play Saturday at Phillips Farms of Cary: Kids' Summer Kick-Off with NC Eat & Play - Saturday 09:00 AM @ Phillips Farms of Cary - Cary
FREE HIIT class @ Crabtree Valley Mall w/ Princess from Fit Factory! - Saturday 09:00 AM @ Fabletics Crabtree Valley Mall - Raleigh
West Point Park Tours (4 start times) - Saturday 10:00 AM @ West Point on the Eno - Durham
Spring Kiln Opening at Mark Hewitt Pottery - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Hewitt Pottery - Pittsboro
Saturday Slowdown at RambleRill Farm in Hillsborough: shop at farmers' market, meet goats, have a picnic - Saturday 10:00 AM @ RambleRill Farm - Hillsborough
Summer Sol - Vinyasa Flow w/ Live Sound Journey & Zero Proof Cocktails - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Raleigh Rose Garden - Raleigh
1st Annual International Children's Day at the City of Raleigh Museum - Saturday 10:00 AM @ City of Raleigh Museum - Raleigh
Ever After: Fairytales, Food & Flowers - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Fred Fletcher Park - Raleigh
"Cultural Infusions": An Art Collective Art Exhibition - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Triangle Cultural Art Gallery - Raleigh
Open Farm Visit to Sunrise Community Farm - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Sunrise Community Farm Center - Chapel Hill
The Original Downtown Raleigh Murals and Public Art Tour - Saturday 10:30 AM @ 300 S Salisbury St - Raleigh
Yoga at Hi-Wire Brewing - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Hi-Wire Brewing at Golden Belt - Durham
Historic Raleigh Trolley Tours (1-hour long; 4 start times) - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Mordecai Historic Park - Raleigh
Wilson Pride Market - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Fayetteville Street - Raleigh
Flight Day at Dix Park - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Dorothea Dix Park, Big Field - Raleigh
The Market at NCMA - Saturday 11:00 AM @ North Carolina Museum of Art - Raleigh
Flight Day at Dorothea Dix Park - Saturday 11:00 AM@ Dorothea Dix Park — Big Field - Raleigh
FlushFest -- West Hillsborough's Homemade Music and Film Festival (admission by donation) - Saturday 12:00 PM @ 711 Eno Street, West Hillsborough - Hillsborough
flART Market - Saturday 12:00 PM @ ArtPost - Durham
Record Show - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Durty Bull Brewing Company - Durham
Art-n-Soul Market - Saturday 12:00 PM@ Waverly Place - Cary
Art-n-Soul Market @ Mystic Farm & Distillery - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Mystic Farm & Distillery - Durham
Rescheduled: Bond Brothers' Mid-Town Square Spring Festival - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Bond Brothers Beer Company - Cary
Raleigh's International Food Festival - Saturday 12:00 PM @ City Plaza - Raleigh
53rd Annual Bimbé Cultural Arts Festival - Saturday 1:00 PM @ Rock Quarry Park - Durham
Doughnuts with Dads at Book Harvest - Saturday 1:00 PM @ Durham Bulls Athletic Park - Durham
Live music - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
Away Home - Workshop Offering (part of NC State's TheatreFEST) - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Thompson Hall (NC State) - Raleigh
The Carrboro Really Really Free Market - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Carrboro Town Commons - Carrboro
Live music: The Stagger Brothers - Saturday 2:00 PM@ Carolina Brewery - Pittsboro
The ComedyWorx Show Matinee - Saturday 3:00 PM @ ComedyWorx - Raleigh
19th Annual Beaver Queen Pageant - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Duke Park - Durham
Saturdays in Saxapahaw Outdoor Concert Series - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Saxapahaw Post Office - Saxapahaw
Jazz + Art Market - Saturday 3:00 PM@ Artmosphere Community Arts Center - Clayton
Summertime Beer Fest - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Clouds Brewing Tap Room - Raleigh
Live music - Saturday 6:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
The ComedyWorx Show - Saturday 6:00 PM@ ComedyWorx - Raleigh
Music at Mill Bridge - Saturday 6:00 PM @ Mill Bridge Nature Park Amphitheatre - Wake Forest
Music on Main - Saturday 6:00 PM @ The Streets at Southpoint - Durham
Live music: Maverick Rose - Saturday 6:30 PM @ Southern Peak Brewery - Apex
1st Annual Bad Prom For A Good Cause - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Tobacco Road Sports Cafe & Brewery - Raleigh
Metropolitan Community Church - Saturday 7:00 PM @ St. John’s Metropolitan Community Church -
Live music: LowderStill - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Nickelpoint Brewing Co. - Raleigh
Pride Dance Party at Gizmo Brew Works - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Chapel Hill
Live Music - Saturday 7:00 @ 20 West Franklin Street Plaza - Chapel Hill
Live music: Thomas Hinds - Saturday 7:30 PM @ Oaklyn Springs Brewery - Fuquay-Varina
Glitter Hour: Amateur Drag and Queer Stage Show - Saturday 8:00 PM @ Ruby Deluxe - Raleigh
Summer F.L.I.N.G. Game Night - Saturday 8:00 PM @ 93 Rock Quarry Rd - Raleigh
Afrobeats, HipHop, Dancehall - Saturday Nights (1st Saturday of Each Month) - Saturday 10:00 PM @ Nafkot Lounge - Raleigh
Social Club: Saturday Night Social - Saturday 10:00 PM @ Social Club - Raleigh
Sunday:
The Raleigh Market - Sunday 09:00 AM @ Raleigh Market (at N.C. State Fairgrounds) - Raleigh
Free Pop-Up Yoga in Wake Forest with SoulFULLY YOURS - Sunday 09:30 AM @ Horseshoe Farm Nature Preserve - Wake Forest
A Place at the Table's "pay what you can" food truck rodeo - Sunday 11:00 AM @ A Place at the Table - Raleigh
Board Game Sundays - Sunday 12:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Durham
Spring Kiln Opening at Mark Hewitt Pottery - Sunday 12:00 PM @ Hewitt Pottery - Pittsboro
Black Farmers' Market - Sunday 1:00 PM @ Southeast Raleigh YMCA - Raleigh
Community Build Day for Durham Art Parade: Art on a Stick - Sunday 1:00 PM @ The Scrap Exchange - Durham
Youth Aviation Academy Program at John Chavis Memorial Park - Sunday 1:00 PM @ John Chavis Memorial Park - Raleigh
Historic Raleigh Trolley Pride Ride (3 start times) - Sunday 1:00 PM @ Mordecai Historic Park - Raleigh
Durham Really Really Free Market - Sunday 2:00 PM @ Lyon Park - Durham
Open Mic Hosted by Michael Brennan - Sunday 2:00 PM @ BMC Brewing - Pittsboro
Durham City of Medicine Walking Tour (pay what you want) - Sunday 2:00 PM @ Raleigh Convention Center - Raleigh
Live music: Gypsy Railroad Band - Sunday 2:00 @ Nickelpoint Brewing Co. - Raleigh
Historic Houses on the Move - Sunday 2:00 @ Bombshell Beer Company - Holly Springs
Beer, Bacon, and Bluegrass - Sunday 3:00 PM @ Oaklyn Springs Brewery - Fuquay-Varina
Open-Mic Night - Sunday 3:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
"Pay What You Can" for tickets to Corpus Christi by Terrence McNally, presented by St. John's Six Sundays in Spring concert: Sensory Expressions - Sunday 3:30 @ E. Carroll Joyner Park - Wake Forest
Indoor Yoga at the Chapel at Dix Park - Sunday 3:30 @ Dorothea Dix Park - Raleigh
Freeman Round House Summer Event Series: Karaoke with Mia Harris - Sunday 6:00 PM @ Vollis Simpson Whirligig Park - Wilson
Sunday Salsa Social -- lesson and dance - Sunday 6:30 PM @ Triangle Dance Studios - Durham
Sunday Night Live Music - Sunday 7:00 PM @ Southern Village - Chapel Hill
Want us to send you all the fun happenings in the Triangle directly to you? Join the LocalFYI newsletter (by clicking here) to get the inside scoop sent to your inbox every Monday. Although it says just Raleigh, we send events that cover the whole Triangle there :)
Any other cool events that we missed? Comment below so we can add them to our list!
submitted by localfyi to triangle [link] [comments]
Durham Craft Market - Saturday 08:00 AM @ Durham Central Park - Durham
The Raleigh Market - For the thrill of the hunt! - Saturday 09:00 AM @ N. C. State Fairgrounds - Raleigh
Shop & Play Saturday at Phillips Farms of Cary: Kids' Summer Kick-Off with NC Eat & Play - Saturday 09:00 AM @ Phillips Farms of Cary - Cary
FREE HIIT class @ Crabtree Valley Mall w/ Princess from Fit Factory! - Saturday 09:00 AM @ Fabletics Crabtree Valley Mall - Raleigh
West Point Park Tours (4 start times) - Saturday 10:00 AM @ West Point on the Eno - Durham
Spring Kiln Opening at Mark Hewitt Pottery - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Hewitt Pottery - Pittsboro
Saturday Slowdown at RambleRill Farm in Hillsborough: shop at farmers' market, meet goats, have a picnic - Saturday 10:00 AM @ RambleRill Farm - Hillsborough
Summer Sol - Vinyasa Flow w/ Live Sound Journey & Zero Proof Cocktails - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Raleigh Rose Garden - Raleigh
1st Annual International Children's Day at the City of Raleigh Museum - Saturday 10:00 AM @ City of Raleigh Museum - Raleigh
Ever After: Fairytales, Food & Flowers - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Fred Fletcher Park - Raleigh
"Cultural Infusions": An Art Collective Art Exhibition - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Triangle Cultural Art Gallery - Raleigh
Open Farm Visit to Sunrise Community Farm - Saturday 10:00 AM @ Sunrise Community Farm Center - Chapel Hill
The Original Downtown Raleigh Murals and Public Art Tour - Saturday 10:30 AM @ 300 S Salisbury St - Raleigh
Yoga at Hi-Wire Brewing - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Hi-Wire Brewing at Golden Belt - Durham
Historic Raleigh Trolley Tours (1-hour long; 4 start times) - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Mordecai Historic Park - Raleigh
Wilson Pride Market - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Fayetteville Street - Raleigh
Flight Day at Dix Park - Saturday 11:00 AM @ Dorothea Dix Park, Big Field - Raleigh
The Market at NCMA - Saturday 11:00 AM @ North Carolina Museum of Art - Raleigh
Flight Day at Dorothea Dix Park - Saturday 11:00 AM@ Dorothea Dix Park — Big Field - Raleigh
FlushFest -- West Hillsborough's Homemade Music and Film Festival (admission by donation) - Saturday 12:00 PM @ 711 Eno Street, West Hillsborough - Hillsborough
flART Market - Saturday 12:00 PM @ ArtPost - Durham
Record Show - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Durty Bull Brewing Company - Durham
Art-n-Soul Market - Saturday 12:00 PM@ Waverly Place - Cary
Art-n-Soul Market @ Mystic Farm & Distillery - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Mystic Farm & Distillery - Durham
Rescheduled: Bond Brothers' Mid-Town Square Spring Festival - Saturday 12:00 PM @ Bond Brothers Beer Company - Cary
Raleigh's International Food Festival - Saturday 12:00 PM @ City Plaza - Raleigh
53rd Annual Bimbé Cultural Arts Festival - Saturday 1:00 PM @ Rock Quarry Park - Durham
Doughnuts with Dads at Book Harvest - Saturday 1:00 PM @ Durham Bulls Athletic Park - Durham
Live music - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
Away Home - Workshop Offering (part of NC State's TheatreFEST) - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Thompson Hall (NC State) - Raleigh
The Carrboro Really Really Free Market - Saturday 2:00 PM @ Carrboro Town Commons - Carrboro
Live music: The Stagger Brothers - Saturday 2:00 PM@ Carolina Brewery - Pittsboro
The ComedyWorx Show Matinee - Saturday 3:00 PM @ ComedyWorx - Raleigh
19th Annual Beaver Queen Pageant - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Duke Park - Durham
Saturdays in Saxapahaw Outdoor Concert Series - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Saxapahaw Post Office - Saxapahaw
Jazz + Art Market - Saturday 3:00 PM@ Artmosphere Community Arts Center - Clayton
Summertime Beer Fest - Saturday 3:00 PM @ Clouds Brewing Tap Room - Raleigh
Live music - Saturday 6:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
The ComedyWorx Show - Saturday 6:00 PM@ ComedyWorx - Raleigh
Music at Mill Bridge - Saturday 6:00 PM @ Mill Bridge Nature Park Amphitheatre - Wake Forest
Music on Main - Saturday 6:00 PM @ The Streets at Southpoint - Durham
Live music: Maverick Rose - Saturday 6:30 PM @ Southern Peak Brewery - Apex
1st Annual Bad Prom For A Good Cause - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Tobacco Road Sports Cafe & Brewery - Raleigh
Metropolitan Community Church - Saturday 7:00 PM @ St. John’s Metropolitan Community Church -
Live music: LowderStill - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Nickelpoint Brewing Co. - Raleigh
Pride Dance Party at Gizmo Brew Works - Saturday 7:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Chapel Hill
Live Music - Saturday 7:00 @ 20 West Franklin Street Plaza - Chapel Hill
Live music: Thomas Hinds - Saturday 7:30 PM @ Oaklyn Springs Brewery - Fuquay-Varina
Glitter Hour: Amateur Drag and Queer Stage Show - Saturday 8:00 PM @ Ruby Deluxe - Raleigh
Summer F.L.I.N.G. Game Night - Saturday 8:00 PM @ 93 Rock Quarry Rd - Raleigh
Afrobeats, HipHop, Dancehall - Saturday Nights (1st Saturday of Each Month) - Saturday 10:00 PM @ Nafkot Lounge - Raleigh
Social Club: Saturday Night Social - Saturday 10:00 PM @ Social Club - Raleigh
Sunday:
The Raleigh Market - Sunday 09:00 AM @ Raleigh Market (at N.C. State Fairgrounds) - Raleigh
Free Pop-Up Yoga in Wake Forest with SoulFULLY YOURS - Sunday 09:30 AM @ Horseshoe Farm Nature Preserve - Wake Forest
A Place at the Table's "pay what you can" food truck rodeo - Sunday 11:00 AM @ A Place at the Table - Raleigh
Board Game Sundays - Sunday 12:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Durham
Spring Kiln Opening at Mark Hewitt Pottery - Sunday 12:00 PM @ Hewitt Pottery - Pittsboro
Black Farmers' Market - Sunday 1:00 PM @ Southeast Raleigh YMCA - Raleigh
Community Build Day for Durham Art Parade: Art on a Stick - Sunday 1:00 PM @ The Scrap Exchange - Durham
Youth Aviation Academy Program at John Chavis Memorial Park - Sunday 1:00 PM @ John Chavis Memorial Park - Raleigh
Historic Raleigh Trolley Pride Ride (3 start times) - Sunday 1:00 PM @ Mordecai Historic Park - Raleigh
Durham Really Really Free Market - Sunday 2:00 PM @ Lyon Park - Durham
Open Mic Hosted by Michael Brennan - Sunday 2:00 PM @ BMC Brewing - Pittsboro
Durham City of Medicine Walking Tour (pay what you want) - Sunday 2:00 PM @ Raleigh Convention Center - Raleigh
Live music: Gypsy Railroad Band - Sunday 2:00 @ Nickelpoint Brewing Co. - Raleigh
Historic Houses on the Move - Sunday 2:00 @ Bombshell Beer Company - Holly Springs
Beer, Bacon, and Bluegrass - Sunday 3:00 PM @ Oaklyn Springs Brewery - Fuquay-Varina
Open-Mic Night - Sunday 3:00 PM @ Gizmo Brew Works - Raleigh
"Pay What You Can" for tickets to Corpus Christi by Terrence McNally, presented by St. John's Six Sundays in Spring concert: Sensory Expressions - Sunday 3:30 @ E. Carroll Joyner Park - Wake Forest
Indoor Yoga at the Chapel at Dix Park - Sunday 3:30 @ Dorothea Dix Park - Raleigh
Freeman Round House Summer Event Series: Karaoke with Mia Harris - Sunday 6:00 PM @ Vollis Simpson Whirligig Park - Wilson
Sunday Salsa Social -- lesson and dance - Sunday 6:30 PM @ Triangle Dance Studios - Durham
Sunday Night Live Music - Sunday 7:00 PM @ Southern Village - Chapel Hill
Want us to send you all the fun happenings in the Triangle directly to you? Join the LocalFYI newsletter (by clicking here) to get the inside scoop sent to your inbox every Monday. Although it says just Raleigh, we send events that cover the whole Triangle there :)
Any other cool events that we missed? Comment below so we can add them to our list!
2023.06.03 01:16 Pnwdd2b 30 [M4F] #BC/alberta Canada no large cities near me -looking for a summer road trip/hiking/camping/cuddle buddy
I have about a two week road trip planned. I will be travelling alone but I’m hoping that I might come across someone that would like to make a new friend and either have a fun day together or potentially have you tag along for a few days. 420 friendly but never drive intoxicated.
Will be travelling through areas such as Jasper, Nelson, Banff, Kelowna, Kamloops, Saskatoon, and penticton. I have already made all of the accommodations and have camping gear for a second person if you are comfortable sharing a tent. Some things I’d like to make clear; sex is not expected. If we are both comfortable I’d love some cuddling at night. As far as expenses go, I’m covering my gas and accommodations regardless if I’m alone or with somebody. If you are open to contributing to the cost, then that’s a bonus but not expected. You would be expected to pay for your own meals though. I may be open to you bringing a female friend. There would just be some logistical challenges to figure out.
submitted by Pnwdd2b to AgeGapPersonals [link] [comments]
Will be travelling through areas such as Jasper, Nelson, Banff, Kelowna, Kamloops, Saskatoon, and penticton. I have already made all of the accommodations and have camping gear for a second person if you are comfortable sharing a tent. Some things I’d like to make clear; sex is not expected. If we are both comfortable I’d love some cuddling at night. As far as expenses go, I’m covering my gas and accommodations regardless if I’m alone or with somebody. If you are open to contributing to the cost, then that’s a bonus but not expected. You would be expected to pay for your own meals though. I may be open to you bringing a female friend. There would just be some logistical challenges to figure out.
2023.06.03 00:21 themasterpodcaster Water Shielding Complete Enclosure
This post is part two of my plan for a enclosure of basalt rock and water shielding combined. You can use water alone but in general at least its much more effective to use basalt and water together as far as I know.
Part one is here
Basalt Shielding Complete Enclosure
https://www.reddit.com/TargetedEnergyWeapons/comments/13yrfez/basalt_shielding_complete_enclosure_and_frame/
Method One
Sea water is best and Im assuming if you cant get sea water then salt water must be better then normal. Try to make the water as similar to sea water as you can Im guessing.
This uses 1.25 wide 2.33ft tall 15 gallon cylindrical water containers. I'm thinking I need two layers so that I can offset the first with the second layer on the outside. Each container on the outside has its center blocking the spot where the two containers on the inside layer
meet. This makes a wall of water without weakness I hope. The wall needs to be 3.25f so it needs to be taller. On top of these containers on the inside layer of them is a single row of collapsible 5.3 gallons water containers.
I'm thinking Ill put a plywood between them and the containers underneath them so they can be pushed together and fit closely together and so the different diameter doesn't cause them to go off.
The top of the 15 gallon containers has a spot at the top where there's a gap thats a weakness. Im thinking Ill put 1 gallon water bag there perhaps partially empty to make it more malleable and the weight of
the 5 gallon container will hopefully mush it down so it fills in the uneven gaps in the top of the 15 gallon container. In front of the row of 5 gallon containers on top of the 15 gallon containers Ill put a pool tube to help block the weakness on top of the 15 gallon containers.
Ill overlap these pool tubes at the end in order to create a totally unbroken wall of water. Because the wall needs to be little taller Ill add large fomentek water bags at the top. The large fomentek bag has its top 6 inches lying on top of the 5 gallon container
and its held in place by a couple bricks wrapped in tarp or something temporarily. The bags hang down on the inside and overlap hopefully by 6 inches from bag to bag. Then you put 4 3x6x1.25 giant 140 gallon water bags on top of the structure lying perpendicular
to it. They overlap all the water walls by a foot. Then the pool tubes are put over the gaps between them. When there full you slide your hand under and remove the bricks from the water bags if possible. Or the top could be made of water bags.
Method 2
You use 6 or possibly 8 140 gallon water bags for the main wall of water. There 3ft wide, 6ft long and 1.25ft thick. First you position and fill the 15 gallon containers. You put 4 on the outside of every water bag. They weigh 120lb each and the water bag weighs
1100lb. So with 4 on one side weighing almost half as much as the water bag and the basalt and frame wall on the other side it might keep them standing up well enough. They 15 gallons are 2.33ft high and the water bags are 3ft tall standing on there side so tall
enough to hold them up. Putting another 500lb of sandbags on top of the 4 containers might work well if the water containers arnt enough. You position a 15 gallon in front of the spot where two water bags meet and then put a 5.3 gallon container on top so its
as tall as the water bag. You can also put fomenteck water bags over the crack as well if you can make them stay in place. You could two to shield one end and then two each side. The two on the end extend way outside of the actual area your shielding.
The ones on both sides form a tight wall along with the two on the end but then extend of the other side somewhat. The width of the basalt structure is 4.25ft and the length of the water bag is 6ft. So you could push the two that extend from the side of the end over
.85ft each to make room to fit the final end water bag between them. You might be able to overlap the where the waterbags meet on the lengthwise sides as well. There are different sizes you might be able to use to make it fit better. The roof of the water shielding might
bend down .25ft to meet the wall or you could put fomenteck waterbags on top perhaps. Like with the first method you might need to put something light weight on top of the structure to help prop up the water ceiling that the top of the basalt structure is roughly
level with the top of the water wall. This is a nice method in that you be able to set it up quickly because there you dont have to postion a bunch of things carefully. They just start in the position and it will only take a small number of hours for a garden hose to fill all
the containers from what I read. Its also nice because you can keep better track of the small amount of cracks. You could also use 4 inch fence posts and fence post foam or concrete possibly to hold up the water bladders. You could dig it with a 3 inch auger attached
to a well powered drill instead of using a fence post digger, shovel or a real auger. To protect the fomenteck water bags and the 5.3 gallon constrainers the more delicate ones you could use 1 or two layers of heavy cheap moving blankets.
Hopefully this would block pretty decent air guns and stuff that gang stalkers might try to shoot at them and you could protect it with plywood from the most vulnerable direction. Can also protect them from any natural damage. Then you can put a heavy tarp
to help protect them from the sun. Poly tubing might also work for water shielding especially for the roof where there isnt much pressure on it or for shielding cracks but I dont know about how you close them so no idea if it works.
The water shielding can act as an automatic sound barrior as you build I think and while you test the structure.
HOW MANY 15 GALLON WATER CONTAINERS FOR A DOUBLE LAYER AROUND A 9XFT LONG 5FT WIDE BASALT STRUCTURE 6o of them about $10000
9 containers long is 11.25ft nearly long enough to the length of the structure 9 plus 2 containers which is 11.5
18 for first layer on sides
8 for first layer on ends since it takes exactly 4 to equal 5ft and fill in the space
26 for first layer
sides second layer is 22
ends second layer is 12
second layer is 34
total is 60 for double layer 1 height containers costs $1000
15 gallon containers
https://www.thecarycompany.com/15-gallon-natural-tight-head-plastic-drum-reconditioned?utm_source=google_shopping&gclid=CjwKCAjw04yjBhApEiwAJcvNoT17vQCNe5vGlbW7CsZwLvpR_zIfcWKd_kqJI9DiGmnCwOBDVTTwOxoCj9YQAvD_BwE#specifications
140 gallon water bags and other sizes
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BL29YQKB/ref=ox_sc_act_title_3?smid=A1UJFOP8HLWSUN&psc=1
large fomentek water bag
https://www.amazon.com/Large-Fomentek-Hot-Cold-Watedp/B00WVPNWZC/ref=sr_1_9?crid=336IIOOXN93R&keywords=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags&qid=1685220594&sprefix=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags%2Caps%2C84&sr=8-9&th=1
large fomentek water bags in bulk cheaper
https://www.backbenimble.com/fomentek-hot-water-bottles.htm?msclkid=6459c66592211766d702a217101d5398
1.3 gallon containers
36 Pcs 1.3 Gallon Collapsible Water Storage Bag Water Container Bag Emergency Jug Clear Plastic Storage Pouch Freezable Water Carrier Tank Foldable Bottle for Outdoor Sport Camping Hiking Backpack
5.3 gallon collapsible containers not quite as big as they say for the ones I measured that i got from walmart after I filled them up to the absolute top. It was 10 inches wide 12 inches deep and 10 inches high or something.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09MVNJG17/ref=ox_sc_act_title_46?smid=AFACUH7IM17NK&psc=1
pool water bag 10ft long and is it 1ft wide? $9 and free shipping
https://intheswim.com/p/10-single-water-bag-blue/72909.html#description-btn-div
HIDING THE STRUCTURE
You could use a pop up gazebo or a more quickly set up greenhouse or possibly a soft storage shed wich is similar if there big enough. You set up the pop up gazebo and then build it inside of it. The gazebo is more respectable and accepted by
landlords and stuff then a big tent or tarp. Put a heavy tarp over the gazebo possibly to protect it from weather and other damage. If the amount of steel or aluminum in it is too much in the gazebo and messes up the shielding you might be able move it off of the
structure with a person or 4 wheeled doly on each leg ( just a random idea).
IMPORTANT TO MOVE WITH URGENCY
The economy will get worse as far as I know and will possibly collapse. Gas prices will rise during the summer at least. Basalt and other materials and items might become less available.
The warm weather will end eventually making it a lot harder to complete a large structure. I certainly feel texteme urgency because of my rapid mental and physical decline and also these reasons.
Also as far as I understand it which is quite limited the world is getting worse and more controling, gang stalking will probably get more alot more empowered and there technology is getting better.
But the best way to move effectively is still to be smart and deliberate to test things as far as I know. It takes time to be smart so you should get started on it.
QUESTIONS
I didnt condense my questions enough i just tried to cover everything mostly even though I must have missed alot of things. I leave it to you to judge what information I need the most and to answer the questions and give other information
in the most helpful way you have time for. What I need urgently is to order my basalt and my water containers and I can figure out the other details as the stuffs on the way. So I need to be able to decide on a rough plan and on a type of basalt so I can order my
basalt. I need to know if water shielding is going to helpful for me and how much water I need.
So I'm trying to block RNM because sinking up there attacks with my thoughts is an incredibly important part of the attacks. I want to block the mental attacks themselves but blocking the RNM will probably be enough to make that stop
by itself. I also need to block them making me feel emotionally numb, low energy, extremely depressed lack a void of happiness chemicals or something and making extremely unintelligent and cant form thoughts. These symptoms all vary at the
same time and seem parts of the same attack. Sometimes when its bad its also very hard to move and I can perceive my body as heavy and stuck and strange. My consciousness is compressed and receads as if I dont exist and I become dethatched
Also reduces anxiety. Happened when I was writing this because speaking about it is a trigger for them and I had to wait for find the words. Other TIs talk about similar symptoms.
These symptoms can all change
an extreme amount in just a second since its artificial and they change based on triggers that hold an emotional charge and significance to my attackers.
So i'm only trying to block them attacking my brain.
How should the basalt be around my body compared to around my head?
How thick should it be around my feet compared to my body?
I think you said that you need it double thick above your head and behind it but in the pictures of your set up it showed 1 full crate above and 1 full crate behind the same as the full crate on either side.
Is it true that you need it double thick above and double thick protection behind while in a prone position?
Why is that? Is above more important just because of the angle of attack or that part of the brain?
Is this also going to be true with me whos not trying to block physical attacks? Will my forehead or face or top of head or both be more vulnerable?
Since all im trying to block are the RNM, mental attacks and perhaps nervous system influence ( just totally guessing about that last comment )
In your photos you have pillowcases with basalt on top of the side crates and back crate covering the crack where they meet the top crate. The pillowcases only give you like 3 inches of protection. How does that actually work to block the crack?
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
I cant get a good handle on why you dont need 2 crates high 2 crates deep and 3 crates wide with one removed for your head to get the protection.
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
How much do you think the protection varies by thickness? If you double it or half it how much does the protection multiply or divide?
What's the highest amount you think youve divided the attacks by and what was the weakness that stopped you from dividing it further?
Could I divide it more than that and how?
Do you think RNM and mental attacks will require more or less basalt then physical attacks. They seem to be able to intrude on my mind for reading or attacking to a
very unusual degree and none of my shielding tests have effected it at all for many years although I've done some which might be very strong ones.
WATER SHIELDING QUSTIONS
Do you think I need water with my basalt since it will cost me $1000 or $1500 to $2500? I think i've seen you say it blocks DC heavy pressure. Is that a single type of physical attack or an important aspect of electromagnetism?
What are the chances they could use DC heavy pressure in a mental?
Will all types of attacks be blocked with the combination of basalt and water if you have enough?
is that the magic combination for everyone or just for your physical attacks.
Whats the ratio in thickness of water to basalt for a full shield of water?
How much do you think the amount of time I spend inside it will affect how well it works. Like will spending only 2 hours in it be a lot inferior then being able to spend 24 hours or a week.
What do you think about how to build it?
Do you think it would be ok to use small nail gun nails in the frame since the mainstay bags that you have metal on them?
What are angles of attack and how does it make sense to set up my thicker protection
I need any kind of help you can give me with this project. Iv been working on this plan and this post for 6 to 12 days where the majority of my work everyday was on it. Then other weeks and months
on similar plans and research on making basalt shielding happen. So it takes me forever to do anything even though I labor all day during the time im not recovering from it. It doesnt seem like I'm capable of
taking in the information on what basalt shields and on the measurements and to figure out how to classify my attacks. I had to make a simple summary of the most simple aspects of using basalt and water
to understand it and that must have taken me a day or more of work to piece together different posts and to organize.
submitted by themasterpodcaster to TargetedEnergyWeapons [link] [comments]
Part one is here
Basalt Shielding Complete Enclosure
https://www.reddit.com/TargetedEnergyWeapons/comments/13yrfez/basalt_shielding_complete_enclosure_and_frame/
Method One
Sea water is best and Im assuming if you cant get sea water then salt water must be better then normal. Try to make the water as similar to sea water as you can Im guessing.
This uses 1.25 wide 2.33ft tall 15 gallon cylindrical water containers. I'm thinking I need two layers so that I can offset the first with the second layer on the outside. Each container on the outside has its center blocking the spot where the two containers on the inside layer
meet. This makes a wall of water without weakness I hope. The wall needs to be 3.25f so it needs to be taller. On top of these containers on the inside layer of them is a single row of collapsible 5.3 gallons water containers.
I'm thinking Ill put a plywood between them and the containers underneath them so they can be pushed together and fit closely together and so the different diameter doesn't cause them to go off.
The top of the 15 gallon containers has a spot at the top where there's a gap thats a weakness. Im thinking Ill put 1 gallon water bag there perhaps partially empty to make it more malleable and the weight of
the 5 gallon container will hopefully mush it down so it fills in the uneven gaps in the top of the 15 gallon container. In front of the row of 5 gallon containers on top of the 15 gallon containers Ill put a pool tube to help block the weakness on top of the 15 gallon containers.
Ill overlap these pool tubes at the end in order to create a totally unbroken wall of water. Because the wall needs to be little taller Ill add large fomentek water bags at the top. The large fomentek bag has its top 6 inches lying on top of the 5 gallon container
and its held in place by a couple bricks wrapped in tarp or something temporarily. The bags hang down on the inside and overlap hopefully by 6 inches from bag to bag. Then you put 4 3x6x1.25 giant 140 gallon water bags on top of the structure lying perpendicular
to it. They overlap all the water walls by a foot. Then the pool tubes are put over the gaps between them. When there full you slide your hand under and remove the bricks from the water bags if possible. Or the top could be made of water bags.
Method 2
You use 6 or possibly 8 140 gallon water bags for the main wall of water. There 3ft wide, 6ft long and 1.25ft thick. First you position and fill the 15 gallon containers. You put 4 on the outside of every water bag. They weigh 120lb each and the water bag weighs
1100lb. So with 4 on one side weighing almost half as much as the water bag and the basalt and frame wall on the other side it might keep them standing up well enough. They 15 gallons are 2.33ft high and the water bags are 3ft tall standing on there side so tall
enough to hold them up. Putting another 500lb of sandbags on top of the 4 containers might work well if the water containers arnt enough. You position a 15 gallon in front of the spot where two water bags meet and then put a 5.3 gallon container on top so its
as tall as the water bag. You can also put fomenteck water bags over the crack as well if you can make them stay in place. You could two to shield one end and then two each side. The two on the end extend way outside of the actual area your shielding.
The ones on both sides form a tight wall along with the two on the end but then extend of the other side somewhat. The width of the basalt structure is 4.25ft and the length of the water bag is 6ft. So you could push the two that extend from the side of the end over
.85ft each to make room to fit the final end water bag between them. You might be able to overlap the where the waterbags meet on the lengthwise sides as well. There are different sizes you might be able to use to make it fit better. The roof of the water shielding might
bend down .25ft to meet the wall or you could put fomenteck waterbags on top perhaps. Like with the first method you might need to put something light weight on top of the structure to help prop up the water ceiling that the top of the basalt structure is roughly
level with the top of the water wall. This is a nice method in that you be able to set it up quickly because there you dont have to postion a bunch of things carefully. They just start in the position and it will only take a small number of hours for a garden hose to fill all
the containers from what I read. Its also nice because you can keep better track of the small amount of cracks. You could also use 4 inch fence posts and fence post foam or concrete possibly to hold up the water bladders. You could dig it with a 3 inch auger attached
to a well powered drill instead of using a fence post digger, shovel or a real auger. To protect the fomenteck water bags and the 5.3 gallon constrainers the more delicate ones you could use 1 or two layers of heavy cheap moving blankets.
Hopefully this would block pretty decent air guns and stuff that gang stalkers might try to shoot at them and you could protect it with plywood from the most vulnerable direction. Can also protect them from any natural damage. Then you can put a heavy tarp
to help protect them from the sun. Poly tubing might also work for water shielding especially for the roof where there isnt much pressure on it or for shielding cracks but I dont know about how you close them so no idea if it works.
The water shielding can act as an automatic sound barrior as you build I think and while you test the structure.
HOW MANY 15 GALLON WATER CONTAINERS FOR A DOUBLE LAYER AROUND A 9XFT LONG 5FT WIDE BASALT STRUCTURE 6o of them about $10000
9 containers long is 11.25ft nearly long enough to the length of the structure 9 plus 2 containers which is 11.5
18 for first layer on sides
8 for first layer on ends since it takes exactly 4 to equal 5ft and fill in the space
26 for first layer
sides second layer is 22
ends second layer is 12
second layer is 34
total is 60 for double layer 1 height containers costs $1000
15 gallon containers
https://www.thecarycompany.com/15-gallon-natural-tight-head-plastic-drum-reconditioned?utm_source=google_shopping&gclid=CjwKCAjw04yjBhApEiwAJcvNoT17vQCNe5vGlbW7CsZwLvpR_zIfcWKd_kqJI9DiGmnCwOBDVTTwOxoCj9YQAvD_BwE#specifications
140 gallon water bags and other sizes
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0BL29YQKB/ref=ox_sc_act_title_3?smid=A1UJFOP8HLWSUN&psc=1
large fomentek water bag
https://www.amazon.com/Large-Fomentek-Hot-Cold-Watedp/B00WVPNWZC/ref=sr_1_9?crid=336IIOOXN93R&keywords=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags&qid=1685220594&sprefix=fomenteck%2Bwater%2Btherapy%2Bbags%2Caps%2C84&sr=8-9&th=1
large fomentek water bags in bulk cheaper
https://www.backbenimble.com/fomentek-hot-water-bottles.htm?msclkid=6459c66592211766d702a217101d5398
1.3 gallon containers
36 Pcs 1.3 Gallon Collapsible Water Storage Bag Water Container Bag Emergency Jug Clear Plastic Storage Pouch Freezable Water Carrier Tank Foldable Bottle for Outdoor Sport Camping Hiking Backpack
5.3 gallon collapsible containers not quite as big as they say for the ones I measured that i got from walmart after I filled them up to the absolute top. It was 10 inches wide 12 inches deep and 10 inches high or something.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B09MVNJG17/ref=ox_sc_act_title_46?smid=AFACUH7IM17NK&psc=1
pool water bag 10ft long and is it 1ft wide? $9 and free shipping
https://intheswim.com/p/10-single-water-bag-blue/72909.html#description-btn-div
HIDING THE STRUCTURE
You could use a pop up gazebo or a more quickly set up greenhouse or possibly a soft storage shed wich is similar if there big enough. You set up the pop up gazebo and then build it inside of it. The gazebo is more respectable and accepted by
landlords and stuff then a big tent or tarp. Put a heavy tarp over the gazebo possibly to protect it from weather and other damage. If the amount of steel or aluminum in it is too much in the gazebo and messes up the shielding you might be able move it off of the
structure with a person or 4 wheeled doly on each leg ( just a random idea).
IMPORTANT TO MOVE WITH URGENCY
The economy will get worse as far as I know and will possibly collapse. Gas prices will rise during the summer at least. Basalt and other materials and items might become less available.
The warm weather will end eventually making it a lot harder to complete a large structure. I certainly feel texteme urgency because of my rapid mental and physical decline and also these reasons.
Also as far as I understand it which is quite limited the world is getting worse and more controling, gang stalking will probably get more alot more empowered and there technology is getting better.
But the best way to move effectively is still to be smart and deliberate to test things as far as I know. It takes time to be smart so you should get started on it.
QUESTIONS
I didnt condense my questions enough i just tried to cover everything mostly even though I must have missed alot of things. I leave it to you to judge what information I need the most and to answer the questions and give other information
in the most helpful way you have time for. What I need urgently is to order my basalt and my water containers and I can figure out the other details as the stuffs on the way. So I need to be able to decide on a rough plan and on a type of basalt so I can order my
basalt. I need to know if water shielding is going to helpful for me and how much water I need.
So I'm trying to block RNM because sinking up there attacks with my thoughts is an incredibly important part of the attacks. I want to block the mental attacks themselves but blocking the RNM will probably be enough to make that stop
by itself. I also need to block them making me feel emotionally numb, low energy, extremely depressed lack a void of happiness chemicals or something and making extremely unintelligent and cant form thoughts. These symptoms all vary at the
same time and seem parts of the same attack. Sometimes when its bad its also very hard to move and I can perceive my body as heavy and stuck and strange. My consciousness is compressed and receads as if I dont exist and I become dethatched
Also reduces anxiety. Happened when I was writing this because speaking about it is a trigger for them and I had to wait for find the words. Other TIs talk about similar symptoms.
These symptoms can all change
an extreme amount in just a second since its artificial and they change based on triggers that hold an emotional charge and significance to my attackers.
So i'm only trying to block them attacking my brain.
How should the basalt be around my body compared to around my head?
How thick should it be around my feet compared to my body?
I think you said that you need it double thick above your head and behind it but in the pictures of your set up it showed 1 full crate above and 1 full crate behind the same as the full crate on either side.
Is it true that you need it double thick above and double thick protection behind while in a prone position?
Why is that? Is above more important just because of the angle of attack or that part of the brain?
Is this also going to be true with me whos not trying to block physical attacks? Will my forehead or face or top of head or both be more vulnerable?
Since all im trying to block are the RNM, mental attacks and perhaps nervous system influence ( just totally guessing about that last comment )
In your photos you have pillowcases with basalt on top of the side crates and back crate covering the crack where they meet the top crate. The pillowcases only give you like 3 inches of protection. How does that actually work to block the crack?
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
I cant get a good handle on why you dont need 2 crates high 2 crates deep and 3 crates wide with one removed for your head to get the protection.
Why dont you need basalt to block the vertical cracks between the crates?
How much do you think the protection varies by thickness? If you double it or half it how much does the protection multiply or divide?
What's the highest amount you think youve divided the attacks by and what was the weakness that stopped you from dividing it further?
Could I divide it more than that and how?
Do you think RNM and mental attacks will require more or less basalt then physical attacks. They seem to be able to intrude on my mind for reading or attacking to a
very unusual degree and none of my shielding tests have effected it at all for many years although I've done some which might be very strong ones.
WATER SHIELDING QUSTIONS
Do you think I need water with my basalt since it will cost me $1000 or $1500 to $2500? I think i've seen you say it blocks DC heavy pressure. Is that a single type of physical attack or an important aspect of electromagnetism?
What are the chances they could use DC heavy pressure in a mental?
Will all types of attacks be blocked with the combination of basalt and water if you have enough?
is that the magic combination for everyone or just for your physical attacks.
Whats the ratio in thickness of water to basalt for a full shield of water?
How much do you think the amount of time I spend inside it will affect how well it works. Like will spending only 2 hours in it be a lot inferior then being able to spend 24 hours or a week.
What do you think about how to build it?
Do you think it would be ok to use small nail gun nails in the frame since the mainstay bags that you have metal on them?
What are angles of attack and how does it make sense to set up my thicker protection
I need any kind of help you can give me with this project. Iv been working on this plan and this post for 6 to 12 days where the majority of my work everyday was on it. Then other weeks and months
on similar plans and research on making basalt shielding happen. So it takes me forever to do anything even though I labor all day during the time im not recovering from it. It doesnt seem like I'm capable of
taking in the information on what basalt shields and on the measurements and to figure out how to classify my attacks. I had to make a simple summary of the most simple aspects of using basalt and water
to understand it and that must have taken me a day or more of work to piece together different posts and to organize.
2023.06.03 00:08 Goldenchicks Corpus Christi Downtown Management District brings five new murals to the area and a weekend long festival to celebrate.
 | submitted by Goldenchicks to CorpusChristi [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:57 ornament- Corpus Christi - It's Always Darkest Before The Dawn (FFO: 2000s melodic metalcore)
 | submitted by ornament- to Metalcore [link] [comments] |
2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!